BNB Up or Down - November 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - November 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-02T09:00:05.932Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract is titled "BNB Up or Down - November 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET" and sits in the Crypto category [1]. Its rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The contract therefore does not ask whether BNB ends the window higher than it started. It asks whether the average price over the window, measured as a TWAP, is at least the starting price. The resolution source is the "BNB/USD TWAP data stream" from Chainlink, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this with a spot-price or different-exchange contract should expect different resolution mechanics.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record was observed at 2026-11-02T09:00:05.932Z and retrieved at 2026-11-02T11:40:00.822Z [1]. These are different times. The price reflects the observation time, not the retrieval time.
The single saved outcome prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the saved record. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The record lists the event status as "active" and gives a listed end time of 2026-11-02T13:55:00.000Z [1]. That end time is later than the retrieval time, but the evidence does not show whether the market is trading now or what its price is at this moment.
The sample covers one market from one platform, Polymarket, and it is not a partial sample [1]. Because only one contract is included, no comparison across contracts or platforms is possible from this evidence. Volume and liquidity are not provided in the excerpt, so this record says nothing about depth.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are. It also does not show any price history, the trading activity behind the snapshot, or the BNB price path during the window. The source notes that the listed sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome," but for a binary Up or Down contract the two saved outcomes are the complete set in this record [1].
Readers should check the listed end time and the exact rule wording before relying on a comparison. The 0.505 and 0.495 figures describe one saved observation and do not show how the market will resolve.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - November 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-02T09:00:05.932Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 2, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window crypto contract titled "BNB Up or Down - November 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET". The contract is listed on Polymarket and asks whether BNB's price will move up or down over a five-minute window. Under the contract rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measurement is specific. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink, not a general market price or a combination of exchanges [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. A reader should therefore treat the contract as a question about one named data feed, even if prices elsewhere appear similar. The listed end time is 13:55 UTC on November 2, 2026, which corresponds to 8:55 AM Eastern Time [1]. The provider record describes the status as active [1]. In the saved data, the observation time was 09:00 UTC, before the window opened at 13:50 UTC, and the retrieval time was 11:40 UTC, which was also before the window opened. The contract therefore had not closed at either time. Its final result depends on the Chainlink TWAP data over the window and is not established by the listing itself.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average BNB/USD price, as reported by one Chainlink TWAP data stream, finishes at or above the starting price for a five-minute window. Because it uses a time-weighted average rather than a single price at the end, short spikes at the close affect the result less than the average across the window would [1]. The rules also set the reference point as the price at the beginning of the window, so the comparison is between the window average and the opening price [1]. The contract is useful for understanding how a prediction market defines its settlement. Two questions can sound alike, such as whether BNB rose, yet resolve differently if they use different data sources or different timing. This contract fixes the source, the window and the comparison in its rules [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-02 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this contract resolves Up?
It resolves Up if the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Does the contract use exchange prices or spot markets?
No. The rules say the market is about the price in the Chainlink TWAP data stream for BNB/USD, not any other source or spot market [1].
When does the contract end?
The listed end time is 13:55 UTC on November 2, 2026, which is 8:55 AM Eastern Time [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.