Solana Up or Down - November 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
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Solana Up or Down - November 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-02T12:00:05.871Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on the Solana price. The source states that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The title sets the window as November 3, 1:15AM to 1:20AM ET [1].
The rule uses the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, not spot markets or other sources. The source says the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a Solana price on another venue should expect different measurement rules.
The listed end time is 2026-11-03T06:20:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not a resolution. The source does not report a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-11-02T12:00:05.871Z and retrieved at 2026-11-02T13:43:04.509Z [1]. These are historical capture times. The excerpt reports the market status as "active" at the time of that provider record [1].
The snapshot shows two outcomes. "Up" was priced at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, and the sample does not explain why the prices stood where they did.
The sample includes one market from one event, with no partial sampling flag [1]. Both outcomes of this binary contract are shown, so no outcome was omitted. The snapshot does not include volume or trader counts, so it cannot speak to liquidity or how many participants hold either view.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show prices at any time other than the saved observation. Current prices may differ. The evidence also does not establish the resolution, since the window had not closed in the saved record.
Comparisons with other Solana markets require caution. Contracts with different windows, price sources, or close times do not measure the same event, and a difference in their prices does not by itself indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - November 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-02T12:00:05.871Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 2, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term price contract on Polymarket about Solana (SOL) against US dollars, titled "Solana Up or Down - November 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET" [1]. The contract asks whether the price of Solana over a five-minute window will end up higher or lower than where it started. The source states that the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The outcome depends on a specific data feed rather than on any exchange or spot market in general. The source names Chainlink's SOL/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and says the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream, not according to other sources or spot markets [1]. A reader should therefore read the contract rules, not news coverage of Solana, to understand what decides the result. The saved record lists the contract as active with a listed end time of 2026-11-03T06:20:00.000Z [1]. That end time is part of the contract rules as recorded at the time of retrieval. It is not an announced event or a separate deadline. The record shows the market was observed at the time listed in the dated snapshot, and that observation is the only status the evidence supports.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Solana's price over one short window, as recorded by a specific Chainlink TWAP data stream [1]. Because the result compares a time-weighted average over the window with the price at the window's start, the contract is about the feed's recorded averages, not a single trade or a final closing price. Readers comparing this contract with prices quoted elsewhere should note that the source limits resolution to the named Chainlink stream [1]. The market price shown in the application is a snapshot of one saved record and is not an executable quote or a verified probability of the outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-02 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Up outcome require?
Up resolves if the time-weighted average price of Solana from the Chainlink stream over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What does the Down outcome require?
Down is the result if the time-weighted average price over the range is not greater than or equal to the starting price, according to the contract rule that otherwise resolves to Down [1].
Which price source decides the result?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream. The source says the market is about that stream and not about other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the listed end time mean an event is scheduled?
The record lists an end time of 2026-11-03T06:20:00.000Z as part of the market details [1]. This is a contract rule timestamp, not an announcement of a separate event.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.