TX-31 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $13.4K
1
8
TX-31 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $13.4K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 10-15% at 29.5%.
Polymarket
- Republican 10-15%29.5%
- Republican 5-10%22%
- Republican 15-20%18.5%
- Republican 20-25%11.5%
- Republican 25-30%6.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $13.4K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 TX-31 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-31 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T00:00:06.191Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event asks how the margin of victory in the 2026 TX-31 House election will be measured. The margin is defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party, and the contract states that "candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options" [1].
Resolution depends on official results. The contract says the market "will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official" [1]. If a value "falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. The contract also describes tie-breaking rules and a fallback to "Other" if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. That date is a contract rule, not an announced event date.
The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The contract text says the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That wording describes an expectation in the rules, not a confirmed schedule.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these markets at 2026-10-18T00:00:06.191Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-18T00:52:37.450Z [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation time. They are not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.
The sample includes all eight saved markets for this event, and the coverage record marks the sample as complete [1]. Seven markets cover Republican margin brackets, and one covers whether the Democratic Party candidate wins. The Republican Yes prices range from 0.047 for "30% or more" to 0.29 for the 10% to 15% bracket [1]. The Democratic win Yes price is 0.0305 [1].
Because these are separate contracts, their prices should not be averaged or combined across different questions. The seven Republican bracket Yes prices sum to roughly 1.01 in this snapshot. That small gap is within the range of quoting noise and does not establish a verified distribution. The Democratic win contract is a different question and is not part of that bracket set.
Volume is not included in this evidence, so no conclusions about liquidity or trader activity can be drawn.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are at these levels, and it does not describe any events between the snapshot and today. It contains no reporting on the race, no polling, and no information about candidates beyond the contract wording. The sample warning also states that the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Readers should therefore treat this as a record of one provider's listed contracts at one observation time.
References
- Polymarket: TX-31 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T00:00:06.191Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 18, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract belongs to a Polymarket event on the margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House election in Texas's 31st congressional district. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2]. The contract does not ask who wins outright. It asks how wide the gap is between the top two candidates, measured in percentage points of valid votes. The margin is the absolute difference between the two top candidates' shares of all valid votes cast [1]. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican parties are the options labeled "Democrat" and "Republican." Independent candidates do not count as either party option [1]. The event is organized into brackets. In the saved sample, the Republican margin brackets run from 0 to 5 percent, 5 to 10, 10 to 15, 15 to 20, 20 to 25, 25 to 30, and 30 percent or more. A separate market asks whether the Democratic candidate wins the seat [1]. Each bracket is a separate yes or no contract. Traders can therefore hold a view on a specific range of outcomes without taking a position on the full set. The saved sample lists the observed prices for each bracket and for the Democratic win market at one snapshot time. These prices are reference values from a provider record, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. A price of 0.29 on a bracket, for example, reflects the provider's recorded trading level at that moment and does not establish how likely that outcome is.
Historical Context
Texas holds elections for all 38 of its U.S. House seats, one per district [2][3]. The 2024 Texas House elections were held on November 5, 2024, and coincided with the presidential election and other federal and state races. Primaries for those contests took place on March 5, 2024 [3]. For 2026, the Wikipedia article reports that primaries took place on March 3, 2026, with runoffs on May 26 in races where no candidate passed 50 percent [2]. This background describes the general election calendar. It does not describe the outcome of any TX-31 race, and the supplied material does not identify the TX-31 candidates.
Why It Matters
The contract measures competitiveness within a single district rather than statewide or national control. Because the margin is calculated from valid votes, the result depends on the official count rather than on early reporting or media calls [1]. The resolution source named in the rules is the official results published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election. Credible reporting may also be used if there is an overwhelming consensus [1]. Several rules shape how a bracket resolves. If the reported margin falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the contract resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If two candidates tie for the most votes, the tie is broken using ballot-listed last names in alphabetical order, and the resulting bracket is the lowest margin bracket for that candidate [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract is updated to name the replacement, and the market resolves based on that nominee [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount finishes and the result is certified [1]. Timing also matters. The rules state that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The provider lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. That time is the listed contract closing time. It is not the date of the election result, and the rules make clear that resolution depends on official certification. The sample shows all eight saved markets for this event, so the coverage is complete for what the provider saved. That does not show that the provider has listed every possible real-world outcome, so the sample should be read as the saved contract set only.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-18 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this contract actually measure?
It measures the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2026 TX-31 House election, defined as the absolute difference between their percentages of valid votes [1].
When is the election scheduled?
The 2026 TX-31 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. Wikipedia's Texas election article gives the same general election date for the state's House races [2].
How is a result on the boundary between two brackets handled?
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
What happens if the count is contested or recounted?
If a recount is started before the vote total is official, the market remains open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1].
Does a price on a bracket show the chance that the bracket will happen?
The supplied material treats prices as snapshots from the provider, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so a price should not be read as a confirmed chance of an outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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