Dallas vs Green Bay: Receiving Yards Escalator
K 1.0K contracts
1
8
Dallas vs Green Bay: Receiving Yards Escalator
K 1.0K contracts
1
8
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 1.0K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
About This Event
DAL vs GB (Oct 18) If Each Yes contract pays per receiving yards X vs Green Bay Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026. Each 10 receiving yards increase the payout by the following schedule: 0–9 yards, $0.0000; 10–19, $0.0001; 20–29, $0.0010; 30–39, $0.0033; 40–49, $0.0080; 50–59, $0.0156; 60–69, $0.0270; 70–79, $0.0428; 80–89, $0.0640; 90–99, $0.0911; 100–109, $0.1250; 110–119, $0.1663; 120–129, $0.2160; 130–139, $0.2746; 140–149, $0.3430; 150–159, $0.4218; 160–169, $0.5120; 170–179, $0.6141; 180–189, $0.7290; 190–199, $0.8573; and 200 or more, $1.0000. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Yes pays out at most $1.00. Then the market resolves to Yes. This is a scalar market. The Yes payout per contract shown above follows this calculation: Payout Formula = floor, 10000 x, y / 200, ^3, / 10000 y = min, 200, max, 0, 10 x floor, s / 10, , , s = official receiving yards The No payout is $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Negative receiving yard totals pay Yes $0.00. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market may close and expire early if the event occurs.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The rules describe a scalar market tied to receiving yards in a Dallas vs Green Bay game. The excerpt says the game was "originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026" [1], so the schedule is described as original rather than confirmed. Each Yes contract pays on a stepped schedule that rises by 10 receiving yards. The Yes payout is $0.0000 for 0 to 9 yards, $0.0010 for 20 to 29 yards, $0.1250 for 100 to 109 yards, and $1.0000 for 200 or more yards [1]. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout, and negative totals pay Yes $0.00 [1]. The rules also state that the market "may close and expire early if the event occurs" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 12:00:05 UTC on October 17, 2026, and retrieved at 13:53:06 UTC the same day [1]. They are snapshots, not live or executable quotes, so they do not show current prices. The record includes eight Kalshi markets, all of the saved markets for this event, and it is not flagged as a partial sample [1]. Ordered by Yes price, CeeDee Lamb is highest at 0.12495, followed by Christian Watson at 0.1153, George Pickens at 0.0945, Matthew Golden at 0.0833, Tucker Kraft at 0.04245, Jake Ferguson at 0.0222, Javonte Williams at 0.01785, and MarShawn Lloyd at 0.0173 [1].
Each market covers a different player's yardage, so these prices should not be averaged or combined into a single outcome. A Yes price is a quoted figure, not a verified probability. The record does not include trading volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants agree.
What remains uncertain
The excerpt states "Listed end time: not supplied." The market records do carry an endDate of 2026-10-21T00:20:00.000Z [1], but the rules text does not explain that field, so it should not be treated as the resolution time or as an announced game date. Whether the game takes place on October 18 and when the contracts resolve are not established by this evidence. The record also does not explain why prices sit at these levels, and no news or player information is supplied. Before relying on any figure, check the current Kalshi listing and rules.
References
- Kalshi: Dallas vs Green Bay: Receiving Yards Escalator. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a scalar contract tied to receiving yards in a Dallas versus Green Bay game that was originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 [1]. The provider calls it a receiving yards escalator. A Yes contract's payout rises in steps as a player's official receiving yards increase, with each 10-yard band carrying a fixed payout [1]. The schedule starts at $0.0000 for 0 to 9 yards, reaches $0.1250 for 100 to 109 yards, and reaches $1.00 at 200 or more yards. The Yes payout is capped at $1.00 [1]. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout for the same yardage outcome, so the two sides of each band add up to one dollar [1]. The provider says negative receiving yard totals pay Yes $0.00 [1]. Because the payout depends on the band a player lands in, the contract is not a simple threshold bet. A player who finishes in a higher band receives a larger Yes payout, while a player in a lower band receives less [1]. The saved event includes separate contracts for several Dallas and Green Bay pass catchers, including CeeDee Lamb, Christian Watson, George Pickens, Matthew Golden, Tucker Kraft, Jake Ferguson, Javonte Williams, and MarShawn Lloyd. Each contract uses the same published payout schedule [1]. The saved event lists eight markets, all of which are included in the sample, so the names shown are the complete set saved for this event rather than a full list of every possible contract in the real-world game [1]. The provider lists the event as active and does not supply a listed end time [1]. The saved market records show an end date of October 21, 2026 at 00:20 UTC. That field is part of the saved market data and is not an announced finish time for the game [1]. The provider also states that the market may close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
Historical Context
The 2026 NFL season is described as the 107th season of the National Football League, with its regular season beginning on September 9, 2026, when Seattle defeated New England in the NFL Kickoff Game [2]. The same reference page lists January 10, 2027 as the scheduled end of the regular season and February 14, 2027 as the date of Super Bowl LXI [2]. This reference is background on the season. It does not confirm the status, timing, or outcome of the Dallas versus Green Bay game or any individual player's statistics.
Why It Matters
The contract measures official receiving yards for an individual player in one scheduled game, using the payout table the provider publishes [1]. Its value comes from the yardage band a player reaches, so the schedule describes how a Yes or No position pays at each level rather than only whether a player passes a single line [1]. The provider also states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing league referenced in the contract [1]. Readers should read the provider's full rules before relying on how the contract would settle, including the early close condition and the rule that negative totals pay Yes $0.00 [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes contract pay?
The Yes payout depends on the 10-yard band that official receiving yards fall into. The schedule runs from $0.0000 for 0 to 9 yards up to $1.00 for 200 or more yards, and Yes pays at most $1.00 [1].
What does a No contract pay?
Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout for the same yardage outcome [1].
Is this a simple yes or no bet on a yardage line?
No. The provider describes the market as a scalar contract, with payouts set by a schedule of yardage bands rather than a single threshold [1].
What happens if a player has negative receiving yards?
The provider says negative receiving yard totals pay Yes $0.00 [1].
Do the listed prices show how likely each player is to reach a yardage band?
The saved prices are snapshots and are not verified probabilities or executable quotes, so they should not be read as a forecast of any player's yardage.
Is the provider connected to the NFL?
The provider states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing league referenced in the contract [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
