Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by...?
PM $116.7K
1
1
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by...?
PM $116.7K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 4%.
Polymarket
- December 314%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $116.7K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The market asks whether Ukraine will regain control of any territory of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, before the listed deadline [1]. The rules define a qualifying capture as continuous shading on the ISW map under the "Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives" layer, and the shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle [1]. A negotiated settlement can count if Ukraine actually controls the territory, but an announced settlement that gives de jure control does not qualify [1]. If the ISW map becomes permanently unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used, and if both are unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used [1].
The title says "by December 31, 2026," and the saved market end date is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, which matches 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 [1]. The same source excerpt, however, lists an end time of 2026-10-01T03:59:00.000Z [1]. This conflicts with the market's own end date and should be checked against the live contract before relying on either time.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 15:00 UTC on October 17, 2026, and the evidence was retrieved about an hour later [1]. It is therefore a record of that earlier observation, not a live reading. The saved market lists Yes at 0.111 and No at 0.889 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities.
The sample contains one market from one Polymarket event, with no partial sampling reported [1]. Because only one outcome is saved for this contract, there is no comparison with other outcomes or other platforms in this evidence.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants, so it cannot indicate how deep the market is or how many people hold each view. It also does not explain why the price is where it is. The conflicting listed end time is unresolved in the supplied material. Finally, the contract's resolution depends on how the ISW map is shaded during the period, and the evidence does not show whether any qualifying shading has occurred.
References
- Polymarket: Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket contract titled "Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by December 31, 2026?" Hryshyne is a settlement in Donetsk Oblast, and the contract asks whether Ukraine will regain control of any part of it under rules tied to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map [1]. The rules state that the market resolves "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Hryshyne between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The contract does not turn on a general news report or an official announcement. Territory counts as captured only if some part of it is shaded under a specified layer on the ISW map by the resolution date, and the shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published [1]. The rules name the "Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives" layer among the qualifying layers [1]. The rules also address negotiated outcomes. If Ukraine comes into control of the area through a negotiated settlement, that qualifies for "Yes" even without qualifying map shading, but an announcement that gives Ukraine de jure control does not qualify. Actual control must be established [1]. Once a qualifying condition is met, later loss of control does not count toward resolution [1]. The provider's listed resolution sources are the ISW Ukraine map as the primary source, DeepStateMap as a fallback if the ISW map is unavailable, and a consensus of credible reporting only if both are permanently unavailable [1]. Temporary glitches or errors in the map are excluded [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Ukrainian control of Hryshyne is shown under the rules described above by the stated deadline. Because it is framed around a specific map and specific shading conditions, the outcome depends on how the resolution sources depict control rather than on broader battlefield narratives [1]. The contract's rules also distinguish map shading from a negotiated settlement that establishes actual control, and that distinction is central to how a Yes resolution could occur [1]. The market record lists an end date of 2027-01-01 at 04:59 UTC, while the provider status text lists an end time of 2026-10-01 at 03:59 UTC [1]. These entries do not match, and this article does not determine which governs. The contract title and rules refer to December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET [1]. A date in the contract rules is a resolution condition, not an announced event date.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes resolution require?
A Yes resolution requires that, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Hryshyne between market creation and the specified date, and that the qualifying shading persists through the next full ISW daily update cycle [1].
Would a negotiated settlement count?
A negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine actual control qualifies for Yes even without qualifying map shading. An announcement giving Ukraine de jure control does not qualify, and actual control must be established [1].
What happens if the ISW map is unavailable?
If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap may be used. If both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used [1].
Does control lost after a qualifying condition change the outcome?
No. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control is not considered toward resolution of the market [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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