TX-14 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $14.7K
1
9
TX-14 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $14.7K
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 15-20% at 28.9%.
Polymarket
- Republican 15-20%28.9%
- Republican 10-15%22%
- Republican 5-10%16.5%
- Republican 20-25%13.5%
- Republican 25-30%6.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $14.7K
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 TX-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied event is the TX-14 House Election Margin of Victory market on Polymarket. Its resolution rule defines margin of victory as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. The contract therefore concerns the gap between the top two candidates, not which party wins. The rule also says that "Independent candidates will not represent options for either party" [1].
Two wording details matter. First, the rule states that "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Second, the Democratic contract in the sample is a separate question about whether the Democratic candidate wins, so it does not measure the same thing as the margin brackets [1].
The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, and the source states that the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The rule also says the market resolves on the official count once made official, and if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is a closing time, not a resolution date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and the application retrieved the record at 2026-10-16T02:53:20.024Z [1]. These are historical snapshots, not current quotes, and they are not executable prices.
The sample includes nine margin brackets and one Democratic-win contract, all from the same event [1]. The coverage record reports 9 of 9 markets included and no partial sample. Within the margin brackets, the highest Yes snapshot is 0.29 for a Republican-party margin of 15%-20%, followed by 0.245 for 10%-15% and 0.165 for both 5%-10% and 20%-25% [1]. The 35% or more bracket shows 0.069 and the 0%-5% bracket shows 0.0225 [1].
The Democratic-win contract shows Yes at 0.005 [1]. Because that contract asks a different question, it should not be combined with the margin brackets into a single estimate.
The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are, and the evidence contains no information about trader counts or volume.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not establish the actual result. It also does not establish whether the provider lists every possible real-world outcome, although the sample warning confirms that all saved markets for this event are included [1]. Prices reflect only the observation time shown above, and the evidence contains no news or other information about the race.
References
- Polymarket: TX-14 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract is tied to the 2026 U.S. House election in Texas's 14th congressional district. It does not ask which party wins. It asks how large the gap is between the top two candidates. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The contract's listed brackets, such as 0% to 5%, 5% to 10%, and 35% or more, are settled by where the official margin falls. The election is described as currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. A Wikipedia article on the 2026 Texas House elections likewise states that the elections will be held on that date to elect the state's thirty-eight U.S. representatives, one from each congressional district, and that primaries took place on March 3, 2026, with runoffs on May 26 where no candidate exceeded 50% [2]. The November date is a scheduled election date drawn from these sources, not a result. The contract's listed end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC is a provider setting, and it does not mean results are known by then [1]. The contract includes a separate market on whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the election. The margin brackets and the party-win market are different contracts with different outcomes, so their prices should not be compared as if they described the same event.
Historical Context
The supplied background on earlier House elections is general rather than specific to Texas's 14th district. Wikipedia describes the 2018 U.S. House elections as held on November 6, 2018, as midterm elections during President Donald Trump's first term, with voters choosing representatives from all 435 congressional districts across the 50 states [3]. That history explains the broader national setting of House races, but it does not describe the TX-14 race or its candidates.
Why It Matters
The contract measures competitiveness within a single race rather than control of a chamber. Because it resolves on the margin between the top two candidates, it tracks how decisively the winner is expected to finish [1]. Its rules also address situations that can change the outcome of the question. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party, so an independent finishing in the top two does not satisfy the Democrat or Republican option [1]. If a party's nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated, and resolution follows the replacement nominee [1]. Resolution depends on the official count. The primary resolution source is the official result published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount is started before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount ends and the vote is made official [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes won by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if the margin falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets?
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
What happens in a tie for the most votes?
If the tie is between two listed candidates, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, it resolves to the lowest bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, it resolves to Other [1].
What happens if the election result is not known by the deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1].
Do independent candidates affect the Democrat or Republican options?
No. Independent candidates do not represent options for either party under the contract rules [1].
Does a contract price show the chance that an outcome will happen?
Contract prices in this dataset are snapshots from a provider at a given time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the supplied sources do not establish how the price was formed.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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