Texas 11 House General Election: voter turnout
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Texas 11 House General Election: voter turnout
$0.00
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5
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
Texas 11 House General Election If the total vote count for all participants in Texas 11 House General Election is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by
Current Market Outlook
Kalshi traders are pricing an 80% probability that total votes cast in Texas’s 11th Congressional District will exceed 220,000. That’s a strong consensus, but not a lock. The market is saying this threshold is more likely than not by a wide margin, but still leaves a 1-in-5 chance of falling short.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
Texas CD-11 covers a sprawling West Texas district anchored by Midland and Odessa, the heart of the Permian Basin oil patch. In 2022, the total vote count was roughly 245,000, well above the 220,000 mark. That election featured an incumbent Republican, August Pfluger, running unopposed by a Democrat. The 2024 cycle is different. Pfluger faces a Democratic challenger, Linda Nuno, and a Libertarian candidate. More names on the ballot historically drive higher turnout, not lower.
Midland County alone saw a 12% population jump between 2020 and 2023, per Census Bureau estimates. More registered voters means a higher base to draw from. The district also overlaps with a region where early voting and mail-in ballot usage have been climbing since 2020, which tends to boost final certified counts.
What Could Change These Odds
The biggest risk is a low-turnout midterm-style environment. Presidential years drive turnout. 2024 is a presidential election year, but Texas CD-11 is heavily Republican. If the presidential race feels decided early in this district, some voters might stay home. That happened in 2016, when total votes in the district hit only 210,000.
Hurricane season is another wildcard. The district covers areas prone to severe weather. A major storm hitting on or just before election day could suppress turnout by 10-15% in affected counties, especially rural ones with fewer polling places.
Certification delays could also cause confusion. The market resolves on officially certified results. Recounts or legal challenges could push certification past the market’s resolution window, but Kalshi has mechanisms for that. The 80% price already factors in a small chance of a contested outcome.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
