Market snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform3 EventsPolitics

Amazonas Governor Election Winner

Name: Amazonas Governor Election Winner
End: 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z

Reported volume

PM $59.4K · K 8.5K contracts

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Amazonas Governor Election Winner

Vol

PM $59.4K · K 8.5K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Provider overview

polymarket

$59.4K

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

8.5K contracts

Reported lifetime volume

Reviewed equivalent pairs

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12 markets tracked

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Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 6%-10%?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Rules & Resolution

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Saved matching review

Related contracts: 3 pairs

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Review notes

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This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 2 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Amazonas Governor winner?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-10-04T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Amazonas Governor Election Winner". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-05T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Amazonas Governor winner?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-10-04T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Amazonas Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $59.4K · K 8.5K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC

About This Event

The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Amazonas Governor Election Winner
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $59.4K · K 8.5K contracts
Coverage: 15 of 15 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXAMAZONASGOV-26OCT04-MCAR; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxamazonasgov-26oct04
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 4, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 3.8K contracts
Outcome Yes: 9.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Professora Maria do Carmo wins the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

Contract: Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3659896; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-professora-maria-do-carmo-win-the-2026-amazonas-gubernatorial-election
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 5, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $13.3K
Outcome Yes: 8.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Contract: Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5401204; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-professora-maria-do-carmo-win-the-2026-amazonas-gubernatorial-second-round
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.7K
Outcome Yes: 12.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 88.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The second round of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first i

Contract: Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXAMAZONASGOV-26OCT04-OAZI; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxamazonasgov-26oct04
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 4, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 4.7K contracts
Outcome Yes: 90.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 10.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Omar Aziz wins the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

Contract: Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3659895; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-omar-aziz-win-the-2026-amazonas-gubernatorial-election
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 5, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $21.5K
Outcome Yes: 90.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 9.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Contract: Will Cabo Daciolo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3659891; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-cabo-daciolo-win-the-2026-amazonas-gubernatorial-election
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 5, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.0K
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Contract: Will David Almeida win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3659892; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-david-almeida-win-the-2026-amazonas-gubernatorial-election
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 5, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $3.9K
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Contract: Will Gilberto Vasconcelos win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3659893; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-gilberto-vasconcelos-win-the-2026-amazonas-gubernatorial-election
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 5, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.2K
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Contract: Will Isael Munduruku win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3659894; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-isael-munduruku-win-the-2026-amazonas-gubernatorial-election
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 5, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.0K
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Contract: Will Roberto Cidade win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3659897; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-roberto-cidade-win-the-2026-amazonas-gubernatorial-election
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 5, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $8.5K
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Contract: Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by at least 15%?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5401199; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-omar-aziz-win-the-2026-amazonas-gubernatorial-second-round-by-15
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $670.1
Outcome Yes: 22.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 78.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The second round of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first i

Contract: Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 10%-15%?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5401200; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-omar-aziz-win-the-2026-amazonas-gubernatorial-second-round-by-10-15
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $847.89
Outcome Yes: 30.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 70.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The second round of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first i

Contract: Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 6%-10%?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5401201; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-omar-aziz-win-the-2026-amazonas-gubernatorial-second-round-by-6-10
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.3K
Outcome Yes: 30.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 69.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The second round of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first i

Contract: Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 3%-6%?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5401202; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-omar-aziz-win-the-2026-amazonas-gubernatorial-second-round-by-3-6
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $598.81
Outcome Yes: 5.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The second round of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first i

Contract: Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by less than 3%?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5401203; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-omar-aziz-win-the-2026-amazonas-gubernatorial-second-round-by-less-than-3
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $793.03
Outcome Yes: 12.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 87.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The second round of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first i

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-5401204 / kalshi-KXAMAZONASGOV-26OCT04-MCAR: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?"; listed deadline 2027-10-04T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round?"; listed deadline 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 14, 2026, 9:05 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Amazonas Governor winner?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-10-04T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Amazonas Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3659896 / kalshi-KXAMAZONASGOV-26OCT04-MCAR: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?"; listed deadline 2027-10-04T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?"; listed deadline 2026-10-05T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 14, 2026, 9:05 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 2 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Amazonas Governor winner?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-10-04T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Amazonas Governor Election Winner". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-05T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3659895 / kalshi-KXAMAZONASGOV-26OCT04-OAZI: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?"; listed deadline 2027-10-04T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?"; listed deadline 2026-10-05T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 14, 2026, 9:05 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 2 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Amazonas Governor winner?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-10-04T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Amazonas Governor Election Winner". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-05T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Amazonas Governor winner?

in 2026 in 2026 This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

Volume$8.51K

Markets2

POLYMARKETPolitics

Amazonas Governor Election Winner

Volume$53.43K

Markets7

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Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?"; listed deadline 2027-10-04T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?"; listed deadline 2026-10-05T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 21:05:09 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?

Yes: 90.0¢
No: 10.0¢

polymarket

Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?

Yes: 90.5¢
No: 9.5¢

Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 6%-10%?

polymarket

Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 6%-10%?

Yes: 30.5¢
No: 69.5¢

Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 10%-15%?

polymarket

Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 10%-15%?

Yes: 30.0¢
No: 70.0¢

Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by at least 15%?

polymarket

Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by at least 15%?

Yes: 22.0¢
No: 78.0¢

Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by less than 3%?

polymarket

Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by less than 3%?

Yes: 12.3¢
No: 87.8¢

No related news found

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Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC

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Price gaps of 2 pp+

Reviewed equivalent pairs

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/E0LtZS" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Amazonas Governor Election Winner"></iframe>

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Amazonas Governor Election Winner

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