Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will SCOTUS require 12-person juries for serious felonies?

Total Volume

$1.47K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will SCOTUS require 12-person juries for serious felonies?

Vol

$1.47K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.47K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.47K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Hamed Kian in Kian v. Florida

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Hamed Kian in Kian v. Florida	Kalshi	79%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

79%

Top Probability

$1.47K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2028 If the Supreme Court, in Kian v. Florida, rules the Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments require a 12-person jury when a defendant is charged with a serious felony, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court has ruled that the Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments entitle a defendant charged with a serious felony to trial by a 12-person jury, such that trying the defendant before a jury of fewer than 12 person

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will SCOTUS require 12-person juries for serious felonies?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2028

If the Supreme Court, in Kian v. Florida, rules the Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments require a 12-person jury when a defendant is charged with a serious felony, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court has ruled that the Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments entitle a defendant charged with a serious felony to trial by a 12-person jury, such that trying the defendant before a jury of fewer than 12 person

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Supreme Court, in Kian v. Florida, rules the Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments require a 12-person jury when a defendant is charged with a serious felony, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme C"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Hamed Kian in Kian v. Florida
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 1, 2028): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 79.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics