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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?

Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?
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PM $8.1K

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As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 14.5% on Polymarket.

Polymarket

  1. Yes14.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

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PM $8.1K

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

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Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine and the European Union formally sign an accession treaty by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying accession treaty will be a binding agreement that establishes the terms of Ukraine's potential future membership in the European Union, including agreements that provide for partial or limited membership or that contain exemptions, transition periods, or carve-outs on specific EU policies. Ukraine does not need to become a member of the European Union for this market to resolve to "Yes". Ratification of the agreement by EU member states, the Ukrainian parliament, or other legislative bodies is not required for this market to resolve "Yes." Preliminary agreements, association agreements, framework agreements, or membership or potential membership in the European Economic Area alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the European Commission, European Council, or Government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

PM $9.10M
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?Yes 68.5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?Yes 64.5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?Yes 62%
+12 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

PM $2.51M
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?Yes 54.5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?Yes 45.5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Yes 12.5%
+1 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
Canada becomes EU Associate Member by...?

Canada becomes EU Associate Member by...?

PM $8.6K · K 1.3K contracts

Will Canada become a European Union Association Member by December 31, 2026?

Kalshi: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Canada and the European Union conclude an agreement expanding rights for Canadians to live or work in the EU after September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET before Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 3.6%Rules differK Yes 1.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

1 saved comparisonNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

PM $2.66M
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2027?Yes 40.5%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2027?Yes 40%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?Yes 1.4%
3 mktsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Canada applies for full EU membership by...?

Canada applies for full EU membership by...?

PM $1.8K
Canada applies for full EU membership by December 31, 2027?Yes 8%
Canada applies for full EU membership by December 31, 2026?Yes 1.1%
2 mktsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

PM $874.6K
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by December 31, 2027?Yes 43%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by June 30, 2027?Yes 10.5%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Yes 7%
3 mktsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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