Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The saved Polymarket event asks how many passing touchdowns Jayden Daniels records in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. Each market resolves to "Yes" if the count equals or exceeds its listed threshold, and to "No" otherwise [1]. If Daniels does not play in the regular season for any reason, the rules say the market resolves to "No" [1]. If the season is cancelled, or is postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "50-50" [1]. That date is a rule condition, not an announced event date. The listed end time is 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The resolution source is official NFL information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T05:02:41.558Z [1]. The prices below describe that earlier observation only and may not match current quotes. The sample includes all five saved markets for this event and is not flagged as partial [1]. The Yes prices were 0.755 for 15.5 or more, 0.30 for 18.5 or more, 0.46 for 21.5 or more, 0.315 for 24.5 or more, and 0.0735 for 27.5 or more [1].

These quotes do not follow the order the thresholds alone would suggest. The 21.5 contract (0.46) is priced above the 18.5 contract (0.30). The snapshot should therefore be read contract by contract, not as a smooth curve across thresholds. This observation does not establish a reason for the difference, and it is not an arbitrage signal, because the snapshot does not show whether these quotes could be executed at the same time.

The prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not include volume, liquidity, or trader counts, so none can be inferred from these prices.

What remains uncertain

This summary covers one provider event. The source states that the saved markets are not proof that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. No other platform is included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The evidence contains no information about Daniels's current health, roster status, or playing time, and no reporting on the season. Prices may have changed since the 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z observation. Readers should check the current contract rules and quotes before drawing conclusions.

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: Jayden Daniels 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.