VA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $11.1K
1
10
VA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $11.1K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 45%+ at 45.5%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 45%+45.5%
- Democrat 40-45%32.5%
- Democrat 35-40%13.5%
- Democrat 30-35%10.8%
- Democrat 15-20%9.7%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $11.1K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 VA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event is the 2026 VA-04 House election, which the source says is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. Each contract resolves on the margin of victory, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to the nominees of those parties, and independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1].
Wording matters at the edges. If a reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a contract close time, not an announced date for when results will be known.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed prices at 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-19T01:50:52.445Z [1]. These times describe a historical snapshot. They do not show live prices.
Ten Polymarket contracts are saved for this event, and all are included with no partial sample flagged [1]. The Democratic margin brackets are separate Yes/No contracts. For example, the "by 45% or more" contract shows Yes at 0.445 and No at 0.555 [1]. The "by 40%-45%" contract shows Yes at 0.325 [1]. The Republican win contract shows Yes at 0.0345 [1]. Each contract should be read on its own wording. The brackets are not averaged, and the Democratic and Republican contracts are not combined into one figure.
These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved data does not include volume, depth, or trader counts, so it cannot show liquidity or how many people hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The sample warning says that including all saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A lower price on an omitted bracket cannot be inferred from this data. Resolution depends on the official count and certification, and a recount delays resolution until it is completed [1]. The evidence does not explain why any price is at its level or how it has moved.
References
- Polymarket: VA-04 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
The VA-04 House Election Margin of Victory event on Polymarket tracks the gap between the top two candidates in the 2026 election for Virginia's 4th congressional district. According to the provider, the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. Wikipedia's article on the 2026 House elections in Virginia says the elections will choose the state's 11 U.S. representatives, one from each congressional district, and that primaries took place on August 4, 2026 [2]. The margin contracts do not ask which party wins. The provider defines the margin of victory as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The event also includes a separate contract on whether the Republican Party candidate wins the election [1]. The event lists Democratic and Republican candidates as the options for those parties. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1]. The candidates named in the contract are there for the convenience of traders. If a named candidate is replaced as the party nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. The provider's listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. Resolution depends on the official vote count once it has been certified. The primary source is the official results published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. A recount that begins before the total is official keeps the market open until the recount is complete and the vote is official [1].
Historical Context
The supplied background on House elections is general. Wikipedia describes the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections as held on November 6, 2018, and as midterm elections during President Donald Trump's first term, with voters choosing representatives from all 435 congressional districts [3]. That article does not describe the VA-04 race or the 2026 Virginia contest, so it offers only general context for the cycle.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the size of the victory margin rather than the winner alone. Because the margin is computed from percentages of valid votes, the result depends on how the official count assigns votes to the top two candidates [1]. The margin brackets split the outcome into ranges, such as 0 to 5 percent, 5 to 15 percent, and 45 percent or more, so the contracts describe different levels of competitiveness within the same election [1]. Traders can compare these bracket contracts with the separate Republican win contract, but the event does not present them as a single complete distribution. The provider notes that its listed outcomes are the saved markets for this event and do not establish every possible real-world outcome [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the margin of victory mean in this contract?
It is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated from the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
Do independent candidates count as options?
No. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the Democrat and Republican options, and independent candidates do not represent options for either party [1].
What happens if a value falls exactly between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
How are ties handled?
If two listed candidates tie for the most valid votes, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If a listed candidate ties with an unlisted candidate, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If two or more unlisted candidates tie, the market resolves to the option named Other [1].
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the option named Other [1]. This is a contract rule and does not indicate that any such delay has occurred.
What if a candidate is replaced before election day?
The contract name is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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