OK-01 House Election Winner
PM $44.3K
1
2
OK-01 House Election Winner
PM $44.3K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Mark Tedford (R) at 97.3%.
Polymarket
- Mark Tedford (R)97.3%
- John Croisant (D)1.6%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $44.3K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event "OK-01 House Election Winner" asks which party will win the OK-01 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. Its rules state that the market "will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections," and that the midterms "will take place on November 3, 2026" [1].
The rules also set how a candidate's party is determined. It depends on the candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation "at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources" [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is assigned to a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus [1]. Resolution follows "a consensus of credible reporting," and if there is ambiguity, it uses official results reported by the Federal Election Commission [1].
The provider record lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time in the provider data, not a separate announced event. It falls after the stated election date, so readers should check the rules rather than assume the two dates match.
Reading the snapshot
The supplied prices were observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:28:01.199Z [1]. They describe that observation window only and should not be read as live prices.
The sample includes two saved markets from this one event: "Will the Republican Party win the OK-01 House seat?" priced at 0.972 for Yes and 0.028 for No, and "Will the Democratic Party win the OK-01 House seat?" priced at 0.016 for Yes and 0.984 for No [1]. Both are listed as active [1]. The Republican Yes price is well above the Democratic Yes price in this snapshot.
These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two Yes prices do not sum to exactly 1 in this snapshot, and the evidence does not explain why. Volume figures are not included here, and volume would not indicate liquidity or the number of traders in any case. The sample covers all saved markets for this event, and the supplied data does not establish that these are the only possible outcomes in the real-world race [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices were at these levels at the observation time. It also does not report any news, polling, or trader activity, and it does not show how the two contracts relate beyond their listed prices. Because the sample comes from one event on one platform, no cross-platform comparison is possible. The outcome is unresolved in the supplied evidence, and the actual winner, the timing of any reporting, and the final resolution are all unknown from this snapshot.
References
- Polymarket: OK-01 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The OK-01 House Election Winner contract is a Polymarket event about which party will hold the OK-01 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections [1]. The provider states that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026, and that the market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins that seat [1]. The contract sets out how a party is assigned. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources. A candidate with no ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties is treated as a member of one of those parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that same point [1]. The timing of this determination matters because it is tied to when races are called, not to the date of the vote alone [1]. Resolution rests on a consensus of credible reporting. If that reporting is ambiguous, the contract resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The provider lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That is a listed end time in the contract data. It is not evidence of when the race will be called or when any result will be announced. The saved market data was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. At that observation, the Republican Party contract showed a Yes price of 0.972 and a No price of 0.028, and the Democratic Party contract showed a Yes price of 0.016 and a No price of 0.984 [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The two contracts are separate, so their prices are not a basis for comparison or arbitrage on their own.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which party wins the OK-01 seat in the 2026 midterm elections, as defined by the contract's resolution rules [1]. Because the outcome depends on the winning candidate's party, the rules on party affiliation and the resolution sources determine what counts as a win. A user reading the contract needs the party-assignment rule for independents and the fallback to official FEC results to understand how a result would be settled [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the OK-01 House election held?
The provider states that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1].
How is the winning party determined?
The market resolves based on the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 seat, with party determined by ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources [1].
What happens if a candidate has no ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation?
Such a candidate is treated as a member of one of the two parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus when the House elections are conclusively called [1].
What source settles the market if reporting is ambiguous?
If there is ambiguity, the market resolves solely on the official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
Do the prices show the probability of each party winning?
The prices are snapshots from a single observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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