Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T00:00:06.191Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event contains Polymarket contracts on Joe Burrow's passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season [1]. Each contract resolves to "Yes" if the number of passing yards he records "equals or exceeds the listed number," and to "No" otherwise [1]. If Burrow does not play in the regular season for any reason, the market resolves to "No" [1]. If the season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined how many passing yards he recorded, the market resolves to "50-50" [1]. The stated resolution source is official information from the NFL, although "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-18T00:00:06.191Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-18T02:41:56.399Z [1]. These are snapshot values, not live or executable quotes, so current prices may differ. The sample includes all five saved markets for this event and is not marked as partial [1]. The Yes prices by threshold were 0.835 for 3,499.5+ yards, 0.715 for 3,749.5+, 0.685 for 3,999.5+, 0.53 for 4,499.5+, and 0.5 for 4,249.5+ [1]. Listed in ascending yardage, the Yes prices fall as the threshold rises, which matches the rule structure, since a higher threshold requires more passing yards to resolve "Yes" [1]. The No prices in the snapshot are 0.165, 0.285, 0.315, 0.47, and 0.5 respectively [1].

All five contracts share the same end time and resolution wording, so the only difference among them is the yardage threshold [1]. Because only one platform appears in this evidence, no cross-platform comparison is possible.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed. The sample warning states that including all saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome," so the five thresholds should not be treated as the full field [1]. Prices are not verified probabilities, and the evidence includes no volume, liquidity, or trader counts [1]. The evidence also does not describe Burrow's playing status, the season schedule, or any recent reporting, so those factors cannot be assessed here. The 50-50 and early-end provisions could affect settlement, but the excerpt does not explain how they would be applied beyond the quoted wording [1].

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: Joe Burrow 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T00:00:06.191Z.