BNB Up or Down - October 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract is titled "BNB Up or Down - October 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET" [1]. Its rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A contract on a different oracle, a spot exchange, or a different time window would not be measuring the same thing, even if the asset name is similar.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T01:50:00.000Z [1]. That is a closing time in the contract data, not a statement that anything else happens at that moment.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation is from 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T04:19:59.937Z [1]. The prices below describe the market at the observation time only:
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00 in this record. The sample contains one market from one provider event, and the coverage record states that it is not a partial sample [1]. The provider status was "active" at the time of the record [1].
Because this is a single contract, there is no other outcome in this sample to compare against. The sample does not show how these prices would differ on another platform or another time window, and any difference between contracts should not be treated as an arbitrage signal without matching the rules exactly.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the prices as of today, since the observation is several hours older than the retrieval time. It also does not show any trading volume, liquidity, or number of participants, and volume would not establish either one. The evidence gives no explanation for the near-even pricing or for any movement in it.
The evidence also does not include the actual BNB price path during the window, so the outcome cannot be inferred from the snapshot. Resolution depends on the Chainlink TWAP data over 9:45PM to 9:50PM ET on October 19, which is not included here.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-interval crypto contract titled "BNB Up or Down - October 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET" on Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether the price of BNB will finish the five-minute window at or above where it started. The rules say it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The measurement is tied to one specific data feed. The stated resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second configuration [1]. The rules say the market concerns the price in that Chainlink stream and not other sources or spot markets [1]. Anyone reading the contract should therefore check the named feed rather than a general BNB price quote. The contract's listed end time is 2026-10-20T01:50:00Z, and the provider lists its status as active [1]. That end time is a contract rule. It is not a record that the market has closed or been resolved. The evidence supplied here does not show a settled outcome. The market snapshot used for this entry was observed at 2026-10-19T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T04:19:59Z [1]. Those times describe when the provider data was captured, not the present state of the contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's price over one five-minute window, as recorded by a specified Chainlink TWAP data stream [1]. Because the comparison uses an average over the window against the starting price, the result depends on the feed's definition of the window and its averaging method rather than on a single spot price at the end. The contract's rules say only the named stream determines the outcome, so other exchanges or spot quotes do not decide it [1]. The listed prices for the Up and Down outcomes in the snapshot were 0.505 and 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot values from the provider, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as an Up result?
According to the contract rules, the market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Which price source decides the outcome?
The rules name Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second configuration as the resolution source and state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the result [1].
When does this contract end?
The listed end time in the contract data is 2026-10-20T01:50:00Z, which the title's window corresponds to in Eastern Time [1]. The supplied evidence does not show that the contract has resolved.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.