BNB Up or Down - October 15, 3PM ET
PM $27.06
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BNB Up or Down - October 15, 3PM ET
PM $27.06
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $27.06
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract is a one-hour direction market on BNB against USDT. Its rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title" [1]. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Binance's BNB/USDT pair, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs" [1].
Two details matter when comparing this contract with others. The title uses Eastern Time ("3PM ET"), while the listed end time is 2026-10-15T20:00:00.000Z [1]. The rules also say the open and close are used "once the data for that candle is finalized" [1], so resolution depends on the finalized candle rather than on the listed end time alone. A contract with different wording, such as one referencing another exchange or a different candle, should not be treated as the same question.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:21:22.448Z [1]. These are different moments, and the prices below describe the observation time, not the retrieval time or any later moment.
At the observation time, the saved prices were Up 0.495 and Down 0.505 [1]. Down was priced slightly higher, by 0.01. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The sample contains one market and is not partial: the record shows one market included out of one total for this event [1]. Because the event is binary, these two outcomes are the full saved field for this contract, and no outcome has been omitted.
Volume is not included in this evidence, so nothing can be said about liquidity or trader participation.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices were where they were, and it does not show any price after the observation time. It also does not show the final candle, the resolution outcome, or whether the contract has closed. The status is recorded as "active" at the time of the source excerpt [1], which is not evidence of status now.
Readers should not compare these prices with prices from other platforms or other BNB contracts as if they measured the same event. Differences in wording, close times, or resolution sources can change what each price represents.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 15, 3PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto price contract titled "BNB Up or Down - October 15, 3PM ET" on Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether the BNB/USDT price will rise or fall over one specific hour. It resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT one-hour candle that begins at the time and date in the title. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT trading pair. The rules say the close and open shown at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once that candle's data is finalized [1]. The rules also state that the contract concerns the price on Binance BNB/USDT, not prices on other exchanges or trading pairs [1]. A reader should therefore treat the contract as a question about one exchange's candle, not about BNB's price in general. The listed end time is 2026-10-15T20:00:00.000Z [1]. That date is the scheduled end of the contract's listed window, not evidence that any particular event occurred at that time. The source describes the contract's status as active at the time it was retrieved [1]. In the saved snapshot, the Up outcome was priced at 0.495 and the Down outcome at 0.505 [1]. These figures are prices from a single observation. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of the outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow question: whether the BNB/USDT price on Binance finishes its one-hour candle at or above the level at which the candle opened [1]. Because the outcome depends on a single candle and a single trading pair, the contract isolates short-term directional movement on one venue. A reader interested in BNB's broader price trend would need different information, since the rules limit the question to the candle named in the title [1]. The price snapshot shows how the market valued the two outcomes at one moment, with Down slightly above Up [1]. Those numbers reflect the saved observation only and do not show how the market moved afterward or what traders expect at other times.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT one-hour candle that begins at the time and date in the title. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1].
Which exchange's prices are used?
Binance is the resolution source, and the rules specify the BNB/USDT pair on Binance. Prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are not used [1].
When does the contract's listed window end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-15T20:00:00.000Z [1].
Does a higher price for one outcome mean that outcome is more likely?
The saved prices are a snapshot of the market at one observation time, with Up at 0.495 and Down at 0.505 [1]. They are not verified probabilities or executable quotes, so they cannot by themselves confirm which outcome is more likely.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
