GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Trump do anything this week? (7/5-7/11)

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Will Trump do anything this week? (7/5-7/11)

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Will there be at least 1 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be at least 1 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?	Kalshi	100%
Will there be at least 2 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?	Kalshi	77%
Will there be at least 3 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?	Kalshi	42%
Will there be at least 4 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will there be at least 5 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will there be at least 7 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?	Kalshi	8%
Will there be at least 10 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will there be at least 15 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?	Kalshi	1%

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About This Event

7/5-7/11 If Donald Trump has taken at least X presidential actions from Jul 5, 2026 through Jul 11, 2026, as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market solely resolves to the publication dates visibly displayed on the "Presidential Actions" tab at whitehouse.gov at at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 12, 2026. The week runs from Jul 5, 2026 through Jul 11, 2026. The actions may include proclamations, executive order

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump do anything this week? (7/5-7/11)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 7/5-7/11

If Donald Trump has taken at least X presidential actions from Jul 5, 2026 through Jul 11, 2026, as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market solely resolves to the publication dates visibly displayed on the "Presidential Actions" tab at whitehouse.gov at at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 12, 2026. The week runs from Jul 5, 2026 through Jul 11, 2026. The actions may include proclamations, executive order

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Donald Trump has taken at least 7 presidential actions from Jul 5, 2026 through Jul 11, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 12, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market solely resolves to the publication dates visi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be at least 7 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be at least 5 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be at least 4 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be at least 3 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be at least 2 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be at least 15 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be at least 10 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will there be at least 1 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump do anything this week? (7/5-7/11)

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KALSHI

Will there be at least 1 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will there be at least 1 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

If Donald Trump has taken at least 1 presidential actions from Jul 5, 2026 through Jul 11, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 12, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market solely resolves to the publication dates visi

KALSHI

Will there be at least 2 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will there be at least 2 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

If Donald Trump has taken at least 2 presidential actions from Jul 5, 2026 through Jul 11, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 12, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market solely resolves to the publication dates visi

KALSHI

Will there be at least 3 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 42.0¢No 58.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will there be at least 3 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

If Donald Trump has taken at least 3 presidential actions from Jul 5, 2026 through Jul 11, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 12, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market solely resolves to the publication dates visi

KALSHI

Will there be at least 4 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will there be at least 4 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

If Donald Trump has taken at least 4 presidential actions from Jul 5, 2026 through Jul 11, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 12, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market solely resolves to the publication dates visi

KALSHI

Will there be at least 5 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will there be at least 5 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

If Donald Trump has taken at least 5 presidential actions from Jul 5, 2026 through Jul 11, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 12, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market solely resolves to the publication dates visi

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Will Trump do anything this week? (7/5-7/11)

Will Trump do anything this week? (7/5-7/11)

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Will there be at least 1 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

Will Trump do anything this week? (7/5-7/11)

Markets (8)

Will there be at least 1 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 1 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 2 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 2 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 3 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 3 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 4 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 4 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 5 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 5 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

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Will there be at least 1 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will Trump do anything this week? (7/5-7/11)

Will there be at least 1 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 1 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 2 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 2 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 3 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 3 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 4 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 4 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 5 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

Will there be at least 5 presidential actions in the week of Jul 5, 2026?

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