Dogecoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
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Dogecoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract is titled "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET" and sits in the Crypto category on Polymarket [1]. According to the provider, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream. The provider notes that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Contracts that describe Dogecoin prices using spot exchanges or other feeds may therefore resolve differently, even when the wording looks similar.
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T17:05:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should convert both to the same zone before comparing timing with other contracts.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation time is 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-25T23:25:44.543Z [1]. These timestamps describe only this saved record. The market may have changed since then, and the provider status shown was "active" when the record was saved [1].
The record shows two outcomes, with Up priced at 0.5 and Down priced at 0.5 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as the likelihood of an upward move. The sample includes one market from one provider event, and the provider lists all saved markets for that event, so no other outcomes were omitted from this sample [1]. Because the two prices are equal in this record, neither outcome is shown as favored at that moment.
What remains uncertain
The record does not include trading volume, order book depth, or the number of participants, so it provides no evidence about liquidity. It also gives no explanation for the price. The sample warning states that including all saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
Readers should check a newer record before relying on this market. They should compare contracts only when their rules, data sources, and listed close times match. Differences in wording or timing can make apparent price gaps misleading.
References
- Polymarket: Dogecoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window price contract on Dogecoin, titled "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET" and listed in the crypto category on Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether the price of Dogecoin over a five-minute window will finish at or above where it started. Its outcomes are "Up" and "Down." The resolution mechanics are specific. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The reference data is Chainlink's DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, which the rules name directly [1]. The rules also state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink stream and not the price reported by any other source or spot market [1]. This means a Dogecoin price quoted elsewhere, even at the same moment, does not determine the result. The event record gives a listed end time of 2026-10-26T17:05:00Z, which corresponds to the close of the 1:05PM ET window in the title [1]. That listed end time is a contract rule taken from the provider record. It is not an announced event or a confirmed settlement. The provider status at the time of retrieval was active [1]. The event record was observed at 2026-10-25T21:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-25T23:25:44Z [1]. A contract's listed status at observation time may differ from its status later. Because the window is only five minutes long, the comparison is between a starting reference and an average over the interval, not between the start and the final price alone. Traders reading this contract should check the exact wording of the rules, since small differences in how the average is measured can determine the outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Dogecoin's Chainlink DOGE/USD time-weighted average over a specified five-minute window is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the rules tie resolution to a single named data stream, the contract isolates one reference price series rather than general market sentiment about Dogecoin [1]. Its short duration and fixed resolution source make it a narrow instrument whose meaning depends on the Chainlink measurement method and not on any broader view of the asset [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves Up if the Chainlink DOGE/USD time-weighted average price over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which data source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is Chainlink's DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When does the contract's listed end time fall?
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T17:05:00Z, which matches the close of the 1:05PM ET window named in the title [1]. This is a listed rule date, not a confirmed settlement.
Does a price on another exchange change the outcome?
No. The rules specify that the market is about the Chainlink data stream and not any other sources or spot markets [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.