Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 25, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T15:00:06.814Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract is a Polymarket market titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET" [1]. According to its rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market concerns only that stream, "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Readers comparing this contract with any other Hyperliquid price market should check whether that market uses the same data stream, the same averaging method, and the same time window. The listed end time is 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the close time recorded in the contract data, not evidence that any event has occurred.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record contains one market, with outcomes "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The prices were observed at 2026-10-24T15:00:06.814Z and retrieved at 2026-10-24T17:26:45.790Z [1]. They describe that moment only and should not be read as the current price.
The sample covers this event completely: one market was saved, one was included, and the sample is not marked partial [1]. The "Up" price is slightly higher than the "Down" price, a gap of 0.01 in the snapshot. Because this is a single binary contract, no other outcomes are being compared. The volume of trading is not provided in the evidence, so nothing can be said about liquidity or the number of participants.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did, and it does not show how the market has moved since the observation. It contains no information about the Hyperliquid price itself at any point in the window. The provider status was recorded as active at the time of the snapshot [1], but this record does not confirm the status now.
Because the sample is limited to one contract, the snapshot cannot be compared with markets on other platforms, which may use different rules, data sources, or close times. Differences in price between such contracts should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without matching their terms.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T15:00:06.814Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price direction market on Polymarket about Hyperliquid, titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET" [1]. Its category is listed as Crypto [1]. The contract asks whether the price of HYPE/USD over one 15-minute window ends up above or below where it started. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The provider states that the resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules also say the market concerns the price in that Chainlink stream and not any other source or spot market [1]. Because the outcome depends on a time-weighted average rather than a single trade price, a brief spike near the start or end of the window does not by itself determine the result. The listed end time is 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the contract's stated closing point. It is not a separate announced event, and the rules do not describe any other scheduled announcement tied to it [1]. The saved provider record was observed at 2026-10-24T15:00:06.814Z and retrieved at 2026-10-24T17:26:45.809Z, and its status is recorded as active in that record [1]. Any later status must be checked against a fresh source.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average price of HYPE/USD in the Chainlink data stream, over the 9:45 to 10:00 AM ET window on October 25, is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. It is therefore a narrow question about short-term price direction under a specific data definition. Traders reading its price should keep in mind that the price reflects the market's view of that definition, and that the resolution depends only on the named Chainlink stream [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this market resolves Up or Down?
It resolves to "Up" if the TWAP of Hyperliquid over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream. The rules say other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When does this contract end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.