Solana Up or Down - October 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T09:00:06.215Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on the Solana price movement in a five-minute window, from 12:25 AM to 12:30 AM ET on October 30 [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, over that window is "greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, not other sources or spot markets [1]. The provider lists an end time of 2026-10-30T04:30:00.000Z [1]. That is the listed close for this contract, and it is not a resolution result. The evidence does not report a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-29T09:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-29T10:19:55Z [1]. The prices below describe that earlier observation, not live trading now.
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495 [1]
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two outcomes sum to 1.000 in this snapshot, but the evidence does not show bid and ask spreads, depth, or the number of participants. Volume is not included, so it cannot be used to judge liquidity.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. Because this is a single contract, there is no cross-platform or cross-contract comparison in this record. A small gap between Up and Down should not be read as a confident forecast or as evidence that a trader consensus exists.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are at these levels. It also does not show the Solana price at the start of the window, the TWAP during the window, or the final result. Whether the contract is still active after the retrieval time is unknown from this record.
Readers comparing this contract with others should check the exact resolution wording, the TWAP source, and the listed end time. Contracts with different windows, data sources, or "greater than" versus "greater than or equal to" rules are not directly comparable, and different prices across them are not evidence of an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T09:00:06.215Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price question about Solana (SOL). Its title, "Solana Up or Down - October 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET", names a five-minute range on the Eastern Time clock, and the contract asks whether the price of Solana in that range ends up above or below where the range began [1]. The source states that the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Solana over the stated range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The price used for settlement is not the price on a particular exchange or the spot price at a single moment. The source specifies the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second averaging design, and says the market concerns only that stream rather than other sources or spot markets [1]. The contract therefore depends on how that averaged data compares with the starting level, not on a trader's view of where the price will be at the close of the window. The contract is hosted on Polymarket, which the saved record lists as the platform and as an official source [1]. At the time of the saved record, the provider listed the event as active, with a listed end time of 2026-10-30T04:30:00Z [1]. That end time matches the close of the 12:30 AM ET window in the title, but the listed time is a contract rule and does not show that anything has happened at that time.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Solana's averaged price over a five-minute window is at or above its starting level when the window ends [1]. Because the rule uses a time-weighted average rather than a single trade, a brief spike at the start or end of the window does not by itself decide the result. The rule instead compares the average over the whole range with the price at the beginning of that range [1]. The market is narrow in scope. It covers one event, one asset pair, and one data stream, as the rules define them [1]. Anyone reading a price for this contract should keep in mind that the number reflects the market's trading at the time it was recorded, which is a snapshot and not an executable quote.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether the contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Solana over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window, and to "Down" otherwise [1].
Which price feed is used for settlement?
The rules name the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream with 60-second averaging, and state that other sources and spot markets are not used [1].
Does the listed end time mean the contract has settled?
No. The listed end time of 2026-10-30T04:30:00Z is the scheduled close of the window in the contract rules [1]. The saved record lists the market as active and does not show a settlement result [1].
Is a contract price the same as the probability of an outcome?
The saved record gives a price for each outcome but does not establish that the price is a verified probability, and the price is a snapshot from the time it was recorded [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.