UT-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $15.3K
1
10
UT-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $15.3K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 20-25% at 22%.
Polymarket
- Republican 20-25%22%
- Republican 15-20%22%
- Republican 5-15%17.8%
- Republican 25-30%15%
- Republican 0-5%11.2%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $15.3K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 UT-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 UT-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This record covers the UT-02 House election margin of victory event on Polymarket, which contains bracketed contracts [1]. The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates [1]. Most contracts ask whether the Republican Party candidate wins by a given range, and one asks whether the Democratic Party candidate wins [1]. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
Resolution depends on the official vote count once it is made official, and the source says that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That date is a rule deadline, not an announced event date. The source also notes that the election is currently expected on November 3, 2026, and the listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T23:27:51.402Z [1]. These are past snapshot times. They do not show live prices now.
In the saved data, the Republican bracket for 15% to 20% has a Yes price of 0.23, the 20% to 25% bracket has 0.22, and the 5% to 15% bracket has 0.195 [1]. The Democratic win contract has a Yes price of 0.02 [1]. Each bracket is a separate contract, so the prices should not be averaged, summed, or compared as an arbitrage opportunity. Prices are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The record includes no volume or trader counts, so it does not show how many participants hold these positions or how liquid they are.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record reports 10 of 10 saved markets included, with partialSample set to false [1]. The sample warning adds that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Treat the list as the saved provider event, not the full field.
The rules also cover situations this snapshot does not resolve. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name will be updated and the market will resolve on the replacement [1]. Ties follow specific tiebreak rules, and a recount keeps the market open until it is completed and certified [1]. The record contains no election result, and it does not compare these contracts with prices on other platforms.
References
- Polymarket: UT-02 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a Polymarket event that asks how many percentage points separate the top two candidates in the 2026 UT-02 U.S. House election in Utah. According to the contract, the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The event is listed with a provider end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. That end time is when the listing closes for trading, not when the market resolves. The contract defines margin of victory as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated against the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The sub-markets are grouped into percentage brackets, such as 0% to 5%, 5% to 15%, 15% to 20%, and so on, plus a separate contract on whether the Democratic Party candidate wins [1]. The Utah state page indicates that the November 3, 2026 elections will cover the state's four U.S. House districts and that primaries took place on June 23, 2026 [3]. The supplied material does not describe the candidates in UT-02 or the district's recent electoral history. The price snapshot in this article was recorded at 21:00 UTC on October 15, 2026. It reflects the saved provider data at that time and is not a live quote. Within that snapshot, the 15% to 20% Republican margin bracket was priced at 0.23 and the 20% to 25% bracket at 0.22, while the Democratic win contract was priced at 0.02 [1]. Prices of this kind are market snapshots. They are not executable quotes and should not be read as verified probabilities.
Historical Context
The supplied material includes a general description of the 2026 Utah House elections. It states that the elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, alongside other House, Senate, and state and local races, and that the primaries took place on June 23, 2026 [3]. Other supplied background concerns a different race, the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election, which is not part of this contract and is not used to describe UT-02 [2].
Why It Matters
The contract measures how decisively the winner of the UT-02 race is expected to beat the runner-up, not simply which party wins. Because the margin is expressed as a percentage of valid votes for the top two candidates, the result depends on the official count rather than on turnout or the total number of ballots cast [1]. Traders can therefore hold a view on the size of the victory in several ranges at once. The Democratic win contract addresses a separate question about which party's candidate prevails [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The contract defines it as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
Which candidates count as Democrat and Republican options?
Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent those options. Independent candidates do not represent either party [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract will be updated and will resolve based on the replacement nominee [1].
What happens if the margin falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets?
The contract resolves to the higher margin bracket in that case [1].
How are ties handled?
The contract sets out tiebreak rules that depend on whether the tied candidates are listed or unlisted. Where two listed candidates tie, the lowest margin bracket applies to the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. Where a tie involves only unlisted candidates, the contract resolves to Other [1].
When and how does the market resolve?
The market resolves on the official vote count once it has been made official, using the results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certification. Reporting consensus may also be used [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other. If a recount begins before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is complete and the vote is official [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
UT-03 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $32.0K
UT-04 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $24.7KUT-01 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $10.3K
Virginia's 8th District margin of victory
K 268 contractsLouisiana's 5th District margin of victory
K 25.0K contractsLouisiana's 4th District margin of victory
K 8.3K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
