Wales vs. Portugal - First Team to Score
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Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Portugal at 50.5%.
Polymarket
- Portugal50.5%
- Neither46.5%
- Wales44.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Snapshot observed Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event is "Wales vs. Portugal - First Team to Score," a UEFA Nations League match. The rules resolve "Wales" if Wales are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, "Portugal" if Portugal are first, and "Neither" if neither team scores in that window [1]. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded [1].
The three saved markets ask different questions. One asks whether Portugal will score first, one whether Wales will score first, and one whether neither team will score first [1]. Each is a separate yes or no contract, so they should be read individually rather than as parts of one probability split.
The no-result provisions matter for comparison. If the game is canceled, does not start by Thursday, November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned without an official result by then, the market resolves to "Neither" [1]. Each market lists an end time of Nov 17, 2026, 7:45 PM UTC [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, and the evidence was retrieved later at Nov 13, 2026, 9:55 AM UTC [1]. The observation is a past snapshot, not a live quote. The saved prices were: Portugal to score first, Yes 0.5 and No 0.5; neither team to score first, Yes 0.475 and No 0.525; Wales to score first, Yes 0.45 and No 0.55 [1].
These figures are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices do not sum to 1 (they total 1.425), and that does not by itself show an opportunity. Each contract has its own wording, liquidity, and close-time conditions, and the evidence does not show how a trade would fill. Volume is not evidence of liquidity or of how many traders hold a view, and the evidence contains no volume figures for these markets anyway.
The sample covers all three saved markets for this event, with no partial sample flag [1]. The provider notes that this does not establish that every real-world outcome is listed [1]. Any conclusion about the full field is therefore unsupported.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not report match status, team lineups, or any development after the snapshot, so it cannot say whether the match will proceed as scheduled. It also does not explain why prices stood where they did.
Resolution depends on the primary source, UEFA Nations League official match information, with fallbacks to Flashscore, then Sofascore, then a consensus of credible reporting if final statistics are not published within two hours of the event's conclusion [1]. Revisions made after resolution are not counted [1]. Readers should check the current listing and the exact rules before relying on any figure.
References
- Polymarket: Wales vs. Portugal - First Team to Score. Provider data observed Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract concerns the Nations League fixture between Wales and Portugal. The provider event is titled "Wales vs. Portugal - First Team to Score" and is listed on Polymarket. The fixture was originally scheduled for Tuesday, November 17, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET, as of the creation of the first market related to the event [1]. The contract is about which team scores first, not the final result of the match. The main rule is that the market resolves to "Wales" if Wales are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, to "Portugal" if Portugal score first in that window, and to "Neither" if neither team scores in that period [1]. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded [1]. A goal scored in extra time therefore does not decide this contract. The rules also cover disruption to the fixture. If the game is canceled, does not start by Thursday, November 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by then, the market resolves to "Neither" [1]. If a match is abandoned, the outcome depends on the governing body's ruling and on whether a result stands or the game is replayed or resumed, subject to the same deadline [1]. Official match information from UEFA Nations League is the primary resolution source [1]. If final statistics are not published within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, Flashscore may be used, then Sofascore, and then a consensus of credible reporting [1]. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, the market resolves to "Neither" [1]. Later revisions to officially declared final scores are not taken into account [1]. The event's listed end time is 2026-11-17T19:45:00.000Z [1]. That date is the contract's closing reference, not a confirmed record that the match was played at that time.
Historical Context
The Portugal national football team has represented Portugal in men's international football since 1921, and it is controlled by the Portuguese Football Federation [2]. The supplied Wikipedia material on Cristiano Ronaldo describes his debut against Kazakhstan on 20 August 2003 and his first international goal against Greece at UEFA Euro 2004 on 12 June 2004 [3]. This is historical background about the teams and players. It does not describe the Wales and Portugal fixture itself or the market's trading activity.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow in-match event: which side, if either, scores first in regulation time plus stoppage time. Because it ignores extra time and shoot-outs, it asks only about the early scoring sequence [1]. The three markets in the saved sample use the same event and close at the same listed time, and each is a separate yes or no question about Portugal scoring first, Wales scoring first, or neither team scoring first [1]. The prices shown are snapshots from the provider, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-13 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a goal in extra time count for this market?
No. The market refers only to the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, and extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded [1].
What happens if the match is canceled or abandoned?
If the game is canceled, does not start by Thursday, November 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned without an official result by then, the market resolves to Neither [1]. For abandoned matches, the outcome depends on the governing body's ruling and whether the result stands or the game is completed by the deadline [1].
Which source decides the result?
The primary resolution source is official match information from UEFA Nations League [1]. If final statistics are not published within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, Flashscore may be used, then Sofascore, and then a consensus of credible reporting [1].
Are later corrections to the score taken into account?
No. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution are not accounted for in determining the outcome [1].
Do the market prices show how likely each outcome is?
Not on their own. Prices are provider snapshots at a point in time, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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