Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal Hadribeaj
PM $2.7K · K 463.9K contracts
3
4
Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal Hadribeaj
PM $2.7K · K 463.9K contracts
3
4
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $2.7K · K 463.9K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
About This Event
Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal Hadribeaj (Oct 17) If X wins the Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal Hadribeaj boxing match originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal Hadribeaj boxing match originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after a winner is declared.
This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Kalshi event covers the boxing match between Sebastian Fundora and Ermal Hadribeaj, originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026 [1]. The source states that "If X wins the Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal Hadribeaj boxing match originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." Each named contract therefore resolves on who wins the bout, not on a broader result.
The source also says that "If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks." The evidence does not say whether the match has been postponed, so this clause describes contract terms only. The source further says "This market will close and expire after a winner is declared."
The listed end time is recorded inconsistently. The excerpt reads "Listed end time: not supplied," while the market records show an end date of 2026-11-01T01:00:00.000Z. Readers should treat the close timing as unresolved and check the provider directly.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:51:39.304Z [1]. They describe that observation only, not live trading. The quoted figures are:
- Sebastian Fundora wins: Yes 0.945, No 0.055
- Ermal Hadribeaj wins: Yes 0.065, No 0.935
These are snapshots, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Both contracts come from the same event on one platform, so comparing them is a within-event check only. The Yes prices sum to 1.01, which reflects the quoted values rather than a claim about the outcome.
Coverage is complete for this saved event: 2 of 2 markets were included, and the sample is not marked partial. The source notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome," but for a two-competitor bout the two saved markets are the only ones in the evidence. The volume field is not supplied here, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not indicate trader counts or recent news about the fight. It also does not establish the current status of the bout, whether the schedule has changed, or the actual close time. The provider status is recorded as "active" at the observation time only. Readers comparing this contract with others should match wording and close times first, since differing rules can make prices non-comparable.
References
- Kalshi: Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal Hadribeaj. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract concerns a boxing match between Sebastian Fundora and Ermal Hadribeaj that was originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 [1]. The Kalshi event contains two separate markets, one for each fighter winning the match [1]. Under the contract wording, the market for a given fighter resolves to Yes if that fighter wins the bout [1]. The rules also address timing. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market stays open and closes after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks [1]. The market closes and expires once a winner is declared [1]. The rule text describes the October 17 date as the match's original schedule, so it reflects the contract's terms rather than a confirmed fight date. The supplied evidence does not show whether the bout has since been postponed or rescheduled. The contract also states that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, or endorsed by the governing league for the sport, and that trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners [1]. The provider lists the event as active, but the listed end time is not supplied in the rule text [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single outcome: whether the named fighter wins the scheduled bout between Fundora and Hadribeaj [1]. Each fighter has its own market, so the two markets describe the same match from opposite sides [1]. The postponement clause determines how long the market remains open if the fight is moved, which matters for anyone reading the contract's timing terms [1]. Market prices shown by the application are point-in-time observations and are not verified probabilities of either outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What happens if the fight is postponed?
If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks [1].
When does the market close?
The market closes and expires after a winner is declared [1]. The listed end time is not supplied in the rule text [1].
Is Kalshi affiliated with the governing league?
No. The contract states that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
