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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?

Name: What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
End: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$844.52

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?

Vol

$844.52

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $844.52

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $844.52

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Poly	30%
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Poly	28%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Poly	27%
Will "Hulk Hogan: Real American" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Poly	26%
Will "Unchosen" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Poly	21%
Will "Million Dollar Secret: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Poly	12%
Will "Stranger Things: Tales From '85" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Poly	8%
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Poly	6%
Will "Straight to Hell: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

30%

Top Probability

$844.52

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 5, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States.

The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows.

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States.

The ranking "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $845
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.22)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $140
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $305
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will "Hulk Hogan: Real American" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will "Straight to Hell: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $57
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will "Unchosen" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $62
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will "Stranger Things: Tales From '85" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $218
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will "Million Dollar Secret: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $62
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETCulture