Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T15:00:06.814Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET" [1]. Its rule states that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The contract's listed end time is 2026-10-25T04:45:00Z [1]. The title's window is given in Eastern Time, while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers comparing the two should convert between them. The listed end time is the contract's closing time, not a confirmed resolution time, and the evidence does not show how or when the market resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-24T15:00:06Z, and PredictPedia retrieved the source at 2026-10-24T17:43:45Z [1]. The prices below are from the earlier observation and should not be read as current:
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved sample contains only this one market for this event, and the sample is not partial: the coverage record reports one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. Because only one contract is present, there is no cross-contract or cross-platform comparison to make. The small gap between the two prices is a fact about this one snapshot only. The evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did, and it reports no trading volume, liquidity, or number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the price at the start of the window, the TWAP over the window, or the final outcome. It also does not show any changes to the market after the observation time. The provider status was "active" at observation [1], which does not establish the status today. Readers should check the provider page for the current price, status, and resolution before drawing conclusions. Any comparison with a differently worded Hyperliquid contract on another platform would require checking that its rules, data source, and closing time match, since differences in wording or listed close time can change what each contract measures.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T15:00:06.814Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window binary contract on Polymarket titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET" [1]. The contract asks whether the HYPE/USD price, measured as a time-weighted average price (TWAP), over a five-minute window will finish at or above its starting level. The market lists two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. The rules state that the market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The comparison is therefore between an average over the window and the opening reference price, not between the price at the end of the window and the start. The resolution source is Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second TWAP setting [1]. The rules specify that the market concerns this Chainlink data stream only, not other sources or spot markets [1]. A trader reading a spot exchange price would therefore not be reading the resolution input. The listed end time is 2026-10-25T04:45:00 UTC, which corresponds to the close of the 12:45 AM ET window in the title [1]. The provider's saved observation was taken at 2026-10-24T15:00:06 UTC, which is earlier than the window itself. The observation time, the retrieval time, the contract close and the eventual resolution are separate events, and the observation does not show how the window ended.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink-reported HYPE/USD TWAP over a specified five-minute window is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it uses an average over the window and a defined data stream, the outcome depends on the reported TWAP rather than on a single moment's price. The rules also name a single resolution source, which makes the source a central part of how the contract is decided [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" outcome require?
An "Up" outcome requires the time-weighted average price of HYPE/USD over the window in the title to be greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
What data determines the result?
The rules name Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source, and state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When does this contract end?
The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-25T04:45:00 UTC, which matches the close of the 12:45 AM ET window in the title [1].
Does the saved price show the chance that the price rises?
No. The saved price is a snapshot from a provider observation and is not an executable quote or a verified probability of the outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.