CT-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $20.8K
1
9
CT-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $20.8K
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 25-30% at 35.1%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 25-30%35.1%
- Democrat 20-25%26.5%
- Democrat 30-35%21%
- Democrat 15-20%12%
- Democrat 5-10%4.7%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $20.8K
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 CT-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CT-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
These markets track the margin of victory in the 2026 CT-02 House election, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. The "Democrat" and "Republican" options refer to party nominees, and independent candidates do not count as either party [1].
The contract says the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a provider field for the contract, not a statement of when results will be known.
Resolution depends on "the official vote count once the count has been made official" [1]. If a recount starts before certification, the market stays open until it is completed [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. A value that falls exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation time is 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:18:43.000Z [1]. These prices describe that observed moment only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
In this sample, the highest Yes price is 0.325 for the Democratic margin of 25%-30% [1]. The 20%-25% bracket shows 0.265, and the 30%-35% bracket shows 0.20 [1]. The Republican win contract and the 0%-5% Democratic bracket each show 0.0015 [1]. These are separate contracts with different wording, so their prices should not be merged into one ranking.
The saved coverage lists nine Polymarket markets, all included, with partialSample set to false [1]. The sample warning still states that inclusion "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The snapshot does not include volume, so it cannot indicate liquidity or how many traders are active.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it contains no news, candidate developments, or updates after the observation time. Only one platform appears here, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Price differences between contracts with different wording or listed close times do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: CT-02 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers the CT-02 House Election Margin of Victory contract on Polymarket, which concerns the 2026 U.S. House election in Connecticut's second congressional district. Wikipedia's entry on the 2026 Connecticut House elections states that the elections will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the state's five U.S. representatives, one from each district, and that the primaries took place on August 11, 2026 [2]. The Polymarket contract's rules say the 2026 CT-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. As of the retrieval time for this entry, the contract's sources describe the election as scheduled rather than completed. The contract does not ask who wins the seat in isolation. It resolves according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates. The rules define that margin as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the calculation uses valid votes, the denominator reflects the total valid ballots in the race, not only the votes for the top two candidates. The market is organized as a group of bracketed questions. Some questions ask whether the Democratic Party candidate wins by a specified range of percentage points, such as 0 to 5 percent or 25 to 30 percent, and one question asks whether the Democratic Party candidate wins by 35 percent or more. A separate question asks whether the Republican Party candidate wins the election [1]. Each question carries a Yes and No outcome, and the Yes and No prices shown on the platform reflect trading activity at the time of the snapshot, not an executable quote or a verified probability. The rules state that candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and that independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1]. If a named candidate is replaced as the party nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1].
Historical Context
The supplied sources give limited history for this specific race. Wikipedia notes that the 2026 Connecticut House elections coincide with other House elections, Senate elections, and various state and local elections, and that the primaries took place on August 11, 2026 [2]. The supplied Wikipedia list of close election results describes a broader category of races decided by very narrow margins, specifically elections decided by a margin of less than 1 vote in 1,000 for single-winner contests, and it limits that list to elections with at least 1,000 votes cast [3]. That list is general background on close results and does not describe the CT-02 race itself.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the size of the winning margin in one specific House race, expressed in percentage points of valid votes between the top two candidates [1]. Its resolution depends on the official results. The primary resolution source is the official results of the 2026 CT-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. This means the contract is tied to a formal certification process rather than to early or unofficial counts. The bracket design also means that outcomes in the same election are related but separately priced. A reader comparing questions should keep in mind that each bracket resolves on its own terms, and that the rules include special handling for results that fall exactly between two brackets, which resolve to the higher margin bracket [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if the reported margin falls exactly between two brackets?
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
How are ties handled?
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes and the tie is between two listed candidates, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, it resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, it resolves to "Other" [1].
What happens if results are not known by June 30, 2027?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Does a recount affect when the market resolves?
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market remains open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
Which source determines resolution?
The primary resolution source is the official results of the 2026 CT-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Is the listed end time the same as the election date?
No. The provider lists an end time of November 4, 2026, at 04:59 UTC, while the election is described as scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2]. The listed end time is a provider field and is separate from the election date and from the final resolution, which depends on official certified results [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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