Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Which countries’ U.S. Treasury holdings will increase in 2026?

Total Volume

$14.39K

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Which countries’ U.S. Treasury holdings will increase in 2026?

Vol

$14.39K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $14.39K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.39K

100%

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12 markets tracked

Will the United Kingdom's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the United Kingdom's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?	Kalshi	98%
Will the UAE's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?	Kalshi	86%
Will France's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?	Kalshi	62%
Will India's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?	Kalshi	50%
Will Canada's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?	Kalshi	46%
Will Norway's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?	Kalshi	40%
Will Brazil's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?	Kalshi	40%
Will Saudi Arabia's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?	Kalshi	36%
Will Taiwan's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?	Kalshi	33%
Will South Korea's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?	Kalshi	33%
Will Japan's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?	Kalshi	20%
Will Mainland China's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?	Kalshi	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$14.39K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

December 2026 vs December 2025 If the U.S. Treasury securities holdings reported X 2026 are above the holdings reported X 2025 in the same first non-preliminary edition of Table 5 that contains December 2026 data, then the market resolves to Yes. For this market, an increase means that the December 2026 figure for the named holder is strictly greater than its prior-year figure in the first non-preliminary edition of the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasur

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which countries’ U.S. Treasury holdings will increase in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** December 2026 vs December 2025

If the U.S. Treasury securities holdings reported X 2026 are above the holdings reported X 2025 in the same first non-preliminary edition of Table 5 that contains December 2026 data, then the market resolves to Yes. For this market, an increase means that the December 2026 figure for the named holder is strictly greater than its prior-year figure in the first non-preliminary edition of the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasur

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the U.S. Treasury securities holdings reported for United Kingdom for December 2026 are above the holdings reported for United Kingdom for December 2025 in the same first non-preliminary edition of Table 5 that contains December 2026 data, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For thi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the United Kingdom's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 25, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the UAE's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 25, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Taiwan's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 25, 2027): Vol $75
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Saudi Arabia's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 25, 2027): Vol $171
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Norway's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 25, 2027): Vol $401
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will South Korea's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 25, 2027): Vol $303
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Japan's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 25, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will India's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 25, 2027): Vol $945
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will France's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 25, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Mainland China's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 25, 2027): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Canada's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 25, 2027): Vol $64
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Brazil's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 25, 2027): Vol $55
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Which countries’ U.S. Treasury holdings will increase in 2026?

Volume$14.39K

Markets12

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KALSHI

Will the United Kingdom's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the United Kingdom's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

If the U.S. Treasury securities holdings reported for United Kingdom for December 2026 are above the holdings reported for United Kingdom for December 2025 in the same first non-preliminary edition of Table 5 that contains December 2026 data, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For thi

KALSHI

Will the UAE's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.0¢No 14.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the UAE's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

If the U.S. Treasury securities holdings reported for United Arab Emirates for December 2026 are above the holdings reported for United Arab Emirates for December 2025 in the same first non-preliminary edition of Table 5 that contains December 2026 data, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary ru

KALSHI

Will France's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will France's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

If the U.S. Treasury securities holdings reported for France for December 2026 are above the holdings reported for France for December 2025 in the same first non-preliminary edition of Table 5 that contains December 2026 data, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For this market, an inc

KALSHI

Will India's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will India's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

If the U.S. Treasury securities holdings reported for India for December 2026 are above the holdings reported for India for December 2025 in the same first non-preliminary edition of Table 5 that contains December 2026 data, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For this market, an incre

KALSHI

Will Canada's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.0¢No 54.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Canada's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

If the U.S. Treasury securities holdings reported for Canada for December 2026 are above the holdings reported for Canada for December 2025 in the same first non-preliminary edition of Table 5 that contains December 2026 data, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For this market, an inc

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Which countries’ U.S. Treasury holdings will increase in 2026?

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Will the United Kingdom's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

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Events (1)

Which countries’ U.S. Treasury holdings will increase in 2026?

Markets (12)

Will the United Kingdom's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will the United Kingdom's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will the UAE's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will the UAE's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will France's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will France's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will India's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will India's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will Canada's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will Canada's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

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Will the United Kingdom's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which countries’ U.S. Treasury holdings will increase in 2026?

Will the United Kingdom's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will the United Kingdom's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will the UAE's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will the UAE's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will France's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will France's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will India's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will India's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will Canada's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

Will Canada's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026?

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