Miller Lite Point of Sale Growth in November 2026
K 21.7K contracts
1
14
K 21.7K contracts
1
14
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 80.5 at 96.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 80.596.5%
- Above 8296.5%
- Above 83.596.5%
- Above 8594.5%
- Above 86.591.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 21.7K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
14
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Snapshot observed Nov 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
These contracts come from a single Kalshi event, "Miller Lite Point of Sale Growth in November 2026." Each market asks whether the Carbon Arc index for November 2026 will be above a given threshold, and resolves to Yes if it is [1]. The index measures year-over-year change, where 100 means no change from the same month last year, and values above 100 indicate growth [1]. It is drawn from Carbon Arc's point-of-sale receipt panel, which the source says "updates daily as new data arrives" [1].
Resolution depends on "finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 2nd calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market" [1]. The listed end date in the snapshot is Dec 10, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, but the source states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. Readers should rely on the resolution rule rather than the listed date. The source also says the market "will close and expire early if the economic data is released" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at Nov 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC and retrieved at Nov 13, 2026, 4:07 AM UTC [1]. These are prices recorded at that time, not current or executable quotes.
Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. The sample shows Yes at 0.965 for the 80.5 and 82 thresholds, 0.945 at 85, 0.725 at 89.5, 0.225 at 91, and 0.045 at 95.5 [1]. Each contract is a separate threshold, so these values should be read one at a time rather than combined.
This is a partial sample. Of 14 total markets in the saved Kalshi event, 12 are included [1]. The selection ranks markets by Yes price, then volume, so the two omitted markets are not shown and their prices are not in the evidence. Nothing here should be read as a complete field of thresholds.
What remains uncertain
Prices are snapshots, not verified probabilities, and they do not show trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants. The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is. No other provider's contract is included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Different thresholds in one event are not an arbitrage opportunity merely because their prices differ.
References
- Kalshi: Miller Lite Point of Sale Growth in November 2026. Provider data observed Nov 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a Kalshi market tied to the Carbon Arc Miller Lite Point of Sale Growth index for November 2026. The market asks whether that index will be above a stated threshold for the month. Kalshi's rules state that the market resolves to Yes if the index is above X, where X is the threshold for that particular market [1]. The index is a year-over-year measure. A value of 100 means Miller Lite point-of-sale spend matched the same month a year earlier. Values above 100 indicate growth, and values below 100 indicate decline. A reading of 103, for example, means 3% more spend than the prior year, while 97 means a 3% decline [1]. According to the rules, the index is measured by Carbon Arc's point-of-sale receipt panel. It uses in-store and online purchases captured through receipt-scanning and rewards apps, matched to the same period of the prior year. The panel updates daily as new data arrives [1]. Determination is based on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the second calendar day after the end of the month covered by the market. For November 2026, the rules therefore point to a determination date in early December 2026, not to the date of any other event [1]. The rules also state that Kalshi is not affiliated with, authorized by, or officially connected to the underlying company, and that trademarks belong to their respective owners [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures how Miller Lite point-of-sale spend for November 2026 compares with November 2025, as captured by Carbon Arc's receipt panel [1]. Each market in the series asks whether that year-over-year index will land above one specific threshold. Because the index is expressed relative to 100, a threshold above 100 requires growth and a threshold below 100 allows for some decline. Traders can therefore read the set of thresholds as a rough picture of where the index is expected to fall, although the saved prices are snapshots and not verified probabilities. The saved snapshot was observed at 06:00 UTC on November 13, 2026. In that snapshot, the Yes price for the threshold of 82 was 0.965, and the Yes price fell as thresholds rose. The Yes price for the threshold of 95.5 was 0.045 [1]. These are observed prices at one point in time, not executable quotes. The sample is partial. Of 14 markets in this Kalshi event, 12 are included here. The included markets are the ones with the highest finite Yes prices in the saved data, so the two omitted markets are not described and should not be inferred from the included ones [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-13 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Yes outcome require?
Yes requires the Carbon Arc Miller Lite Point of Sale Growth index for November 2026 to be above the threshold stated in each market. The index is a year-over-year measure where 100 equals the same month last year [1].
Which data determines the result?
The rules say determination uses finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the second calendar day after the end of the covered month, and that the index comes from Carbon Arc's point-of-sale receipt panel [1].
Does the price shown equal the chance of Yes?
The prices in this article are snapshots from a single observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as confirmed chances of an outcome [1].
Is the full set of thresholds shown?
No. The article covers 12 of 14 markets in the saved Kalshi event. The sample is limited to the included markets, and the omitted markets are not described [1].
Is Kalshi connected to Miller Lite?
The contract rules state that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or officially connected with the underlying company [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
