GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?

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How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?

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Polymarket

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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6 markets tracked

Exactly people (1)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Exactly people (1)	Kalshi	50%
Exactly people (2)	Kalshi	39%
Exactly people (3)	Kalshi	10%
Exactly people (4)	Kalshi	4%
Above people (Above 5)	Kalshi	3%
Exactly people (5)	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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50%

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About This Event

after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 If the number of people who have served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, excluding Keir Starmer, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 is X 5, then the market resolves to Yes. "Served in the role" means that an individual has formally held the position in an official capacity, whether by appointment, election, succession, or acting designation, and performed the duties of that role for any length of time during the time period. If an individual serv

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029

If the number of people who have served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, excluding Keir Starmer, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 is X 5, then the market resolves to Yes. "Served in the role" means that an individual has formally held the position in an official capacity, whether by appointment, election, succession, or acting designation, and performed the duties of that role for any length of time during the time period. If an individual serv

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of people who have served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, excluding Keir Starmer, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 is above 5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: "Served in the role" means that an individual has formally held the position in an official cap"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Above people (Above 5)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Exactly people (5)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Exactly people (4)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Exactly people (3)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Exactly people (2)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Exactly people (1)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?

Volume$0.00

Markets6

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KALSHI

Exactly people (1)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHIOther

Exactly people (1)

If the number of people who have served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, excluding Keir Starmer, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: "Served in the role" means that an individual has formally held the position in an official c

KALSHI

Exactly people (2)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.5¢No 61.5¢

KALSHIOther

Exactly people (2)

If the number of people who have served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, excluding Keir Starmer, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: "Served in the role" means that an individual has formally held the position in an official c

KALSHI

Exactly people (3)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIOther

Exactly people (3)

If the number of people who have served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, excluding Keir Starmer, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: "Served in the role" means that an individual has formally held the position in an official c

KALSHI

Exactly people (4)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIOther

Exactly people (4)

If the number of people who have served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, excluding Keir Starmer, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 is exactly 4, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: "Served in the role" means that an individual has formally held the position in an official c

KALSHI

Above people (Above 5)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIOther

Above people (Above 5)

If the number of people who have served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, excluding Keir Starmer, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 is above 5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: "Served in the role" means that an individual has formally held the position in an official cap

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How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?

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How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?

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