Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract covers a single window, the period from 11:45 PM to 12:00 AM ET, as stated in its title [1]. The rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range" [1]. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Readers comparing this with other Hyperliquid or HYPE price markets should check whether those contracts use the same data stream, time window, and comparison rule. Wording differences like these can make two contracts measure different things even when their titles look similar.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-26T10:14:41.340Z [1]. These are different times. The observation is a past snapshot, not a live quote, and the contract's listed end time is 2026-10-27T04:00:00.000Z [1].
The saved snapshot shows "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are prices in the snapshot only. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Volume and the number of traders are not included in the evidence, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold either view.
The sample covers one provider event with one market, and the coverage record marks it as complete, with no partial sample [1]. The evidence states that all saved markets for this event are included, but that does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for the window [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices sit where they do, and this summary does not offer a reason. It also does not report any outcome, because the window's resolution is not in the supplied evidence. Since the snapshot is from before the retrieval time, the current prices may differ.
No other platform or contract is included here, so this snapshot should not be compared with unrelated markets as if they were the same question.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto contract on Polymarket titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET" [1]. The contract asks whether the price of Hyperliquid will move up over a specific 15-minute window. According to the event's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measurement is based on a single data source. The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price shown in that Chainlink data stream for the HYPE/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. This means that a price on a different exchange or aggregator would not decide the outcome, even if it looked similar. The event is listed with an end time of 2026-10-27T04:00:00.000Z [1]. The title describes the window as ending at 12:00AM Eastern Time, so the listed end time and the title refer to the same closing point. The listed end time is the close of the contract, not an announcement of any event. The market was listed as active in the provider record that was retrieved for this entry [1]. Its prices reflect a snapshot taken at the observation time shown in the dated status line, and they are not executable quotes.
Why It Matters
The contract measures direction over a defined window rather than a price target. Because the comparison is between a time-weighted average over the window and the price at the window's start, the outcome depends on the average path of the price during the window, not only on its final value [1]. The rules also fix the data feed, so the outcome is tied to one named Chainlink stream for HYPE/USD [1]. Anyone reading the contract's price should keep in mind that it is a market-implied snapshot. It is not a verified probability, and the existence of different prices across other contracts does not by itself indicate an opportunity [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Up outcome mean for this contract?
The market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of Hyperliquid over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What happens if the average is below the starting price?
In that case the market resolves to Down, according to the rules as recorded [1].
Which price data decides the outcome?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream. The rules say that other sources or spot markets are not the basis for resolution [1].
Does the price shown on this contract give the probability of an Up result?
The price is a snapshot from the saved market record and is not an executable quote or a verified probability [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.