Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET" [1]. The rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A contract on a different Bitcoin price source, a spot exchange, or a different averaging window would not measure the same thing, even if its title looks similar.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T02:15:00.000Z [1]. That is the close time in the provider record. It is not an announcement of a result or a resolution date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z, and this record was retrieved at 2026-10-19T04:13:54.526Z [1]. The status in the saved record is "active" at the observation time. Those two timestamps differ, so the prices below describe the observed snapshot only, not the market at the time you read this.
The saved prices are "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot quotes. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The record does not include volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each side.
The sample covers one saved market out of one total market for this provider event, and the record marks it as not a partial sample [1]. The provider's note that all saved markets are included "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Here, though, the only outcomes are the two binary sides.
No other platform's contract is in this evidence, so there is no cross-platform comparison to make.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices sit where they do, and this analysis does not attempt to. It also does not show whether the price has moved since the observation time, whether the status has changed, or how the contract will resolve. The result depends on the Chainlink TWAP calculation described in the rules, which the snapshot does not evaluate.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window price contract on the Bitcoin price in US dollars, listed on Polymarket under the title "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET" [1]. The contract is categorized as crypto and is listed with an end time of 2026-10-20T02:15:00.000Z, which corresponds to 10:15PM ET on October 19 [1]. The contract text says it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The measurement is specific. The contract does not compare the price at the end of the window with the price at the start. It compares a time-weighted average taken across the whole window with the starting price [1]. The contract names Chainlink as the resolution source, specifically a BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second averaging label in its address [1]. The rules state that only this Chainlink data stream counts, not other sources or spot markets [1]. The market snapshot used for this article was observed at 2026-10-19T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 04:13:54Z, so it reflects the listing at those times and not a live view [1]. The contract closes at the listed end time. This article does not report how the contract resolved, because no resolution result appears in the supplied material.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Bitcoin's time-weighted average price over a fifteen-minute window, as recorded in one named Chainlink data stream, finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the outcome depends on a time average and a single named feed, the contract's result can differ from what a reader might infer by looking at the starting and ending prices alone. The rules also say the contract concerns only that Chainlink stream and not other sources or spot markets [1]. Any price shown for the contract is a snapshot of the market at its observation time and is not an executable quote or a verified probability.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves to Up or Down?
The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price data does the contract use?
The contract uses the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say it does not use other sources or spot markets [1].
When does this contract close?
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T02:15:00.000Z [1]. That listed end time is a contract closing time and does not by itself show when or how the contract was resolved.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.