BNB Up or Down - October 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T09:00:06.125Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one Polymarket contract, "BNB Up or Down - October 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET," in the Crypto category [1]. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A contract on a different exchange, index, or spot feed may therefore settle differently, even if its title looks similar.
The provider lists an end time of 2026-10-30T14:45:00.000Z [1]. The title's window ends at 10:45AM ET, so the reader should compare the two timestamps directly rather than assume a conversion.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-30T09:00:06.125Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-30T11:31:44.848Z [1]. Those are different times. The prices below describe the observation time, not the retrieval time, and they should not be read as current quotes.
At observation, the saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The provider status was "active" [1]. The sample covers the only market saved for this event: one of one market was included, and the sample is not partial [1]. Because the contract has only two outcomes, the two prices are the complete saved field for this event.
The evidence does not show trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants, so no conclusion about depth or agreement can be drawn.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show prices after the observation time, so the current state of the market is unknown from this record. It also does not show whether the contract has since closed or resolved. The provider's status at retrieval is not supplied.
The evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are, and no cause should be inferred from them. A reader comparing this contract with another platform's BNB market should first check that the rules, data source, observation window, and close time match. Differences in those terms mean the contracts are not interchangeable, and a price gap between them is not by itself an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T09:00:06.125Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window market titled "BNB Up or Down - October 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET". The saved record lists the category as Crypto and identifies the platform as Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether the price of BNB over a fixed 15-minute window will end up at or above where it started. The contract rules state that the market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measurement is specific. The rules name the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink as the resolution source and state that the market concerns that data stream's price for the BNB/USD pair, not other sources or spot markets [1]. A reader should therefore treat the contract as a question about this one data feed, which can differ from prices on other venues or exchanges. The timing has several separate parts. The saved record was observed at 09:00:06 UTC and retrieved at 11:31:44 UTC on October 30, 2026. The listed end time in the contract data is 14:45:00 UTC, which corresponds to the 10:45 AM ET end stated in the title [1]. The observation, retrieval, listed end time, and final resolution are distinct events, and the rules do not state the actual settlement time or outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's price over one specific 15-minute window, as recorded by the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1]. Because the outcome compares the average price across the window with the price at the window's start, the result depends on the path of the data feed during the window rather than only on the closing price. The rules also specify that other sources and spot markets do not determine the result [1]. This means the contract is useful for understanding how a particular oracle-based measurement is defined, and its wording should be read closely before comparing it with other price questions.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" outcome mean for this contract?
According to the contract rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP of BNB over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What does a "Down" outcome mean?
The rules state that if the condition for "Up" is not met, the market resolves to "Down" [1].
Which data source decides the result?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1].
Do prices on other exchanges or spot markets affect the outcome?
The rules say the market is about the price in the Chainlink TWAP data stream for BNB/USD and not about any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract end?
The listed end time in the contract data is 14:45:00 UTC, matching the 10:45 AM ET end time in the title [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.