Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
PM $0
1
1
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T09:00:05.951Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The market is titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET" and sits in the Crypto category [1]. According to the saved rules, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a Bitcoin price from another exchange or index should expect different results when the sources differ.
The listed end time is 2026-10-29T07:10:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's listed close, not the time the outcome was determined.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-28T09:00:05.951Z, and this review retrieved the saved record at 2026-10-28T09:23:06.324Z [1]. These are the only timing points in the evidence. The provider status was "active" at observation [1].
The saved prices are "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00, but that alone does not show what a buyer or seller could trade at.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, and it is complete for that event: the saved coverage shows one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. The saved record also notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome. Because the contract is binary, the two outcomes are the full set of listed results.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are, and this summary does not infer a cause. It also contains no trading volume, liquidity measure, or trader count, so it cannot show how deep the market is.
The snapshot cannot be treated as current. It describes conditions at 09:00 UTC on October 28, 2026, and the outcome will depend on the Chainlink TWAP for the stated window, which is not in the evidence. Other platforms' contracts may use different wording, sources, or close times, so their prices should not be compared directly with these.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T09:00:05.951Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-interval contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET" in the crypto category, listed on Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether the price of Bitcoin moves up or down over one specific five-minute window. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The resolution source is named in the contract rules as Chainlink, specifically its BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not the price reported by other sources or spot markets [1]. This distinction matters because a Bitcoin price shown on a different exchange or data feed may differ from the figure used to settle this contract. The contract lists its end time as 2026-10-29 07:10 UTC [1]. That is the closing time of the market. Settlement is the later step in which the stated rule is applied to the data. The source material supplied for this entry does not report a settled outcome, so this article does not describe one. The market carries two outcomes. At the observation time of 2026-10-28 09:00 UTC, the "Up" outcome was priced at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from one moment. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. Trading volume is also not reported here, so nothing can be said about the depth of the market or the number of participants.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over a single five-minute window, as defined by a time-weighted average from one named data stream [1]. Because the rule compares the average over the window with the price at the window's start, the result depends on the stream's data rather than on the closing price of any exchange. Anyone reading the prices for this market should keep in mind that they reflect trading in the contract at one observed moment, and that the outcome will be decided only by the stated Chainlink rule after the listed end time [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract compares the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the stated window with the price at the beginning of that window. If the average is greater than or equal to the starting price, it resolves Up. Otherwise, it resolves Down [1].
Which price data is used for settlement?
The rules name the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval as the resolution source. The rules say the market concerns that stream and not other sources or spot markets [1].
What do the displayed prices mean?
The listed prices of 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down were recorded at an observation time of 2026-10-28 09:00 UTC [1]. They are snapshots from that moment and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
When does the market close?
The listed end time is 2026-10-29 07:10 UTC [1]. The end time marks the close of the market and is not a record of settlement.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
PM $0
XRP Up or Down - October 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
PM $0
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.