Dogecoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
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Dogecoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract, titled "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET," resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The stated resolution source is the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, and the contract says it is "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-31T06:15:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close time, not a confirmed resolution result.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation was saved at 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-30T12:54:14.291Z [1]. In that snapshot, the Up outcome is priced at 0.5 and the Down outcome at 0.5 [1]. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They describe the saved moment only and should not be read as today's live prices.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. Coverage lists one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. The provider status was active when saved [1]. The evidence contains no volume or liquidity figures, so it cannot show how deep trading was or how many participants were involved.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are at even levels, and it contains no history showing how they changed over time. It also lacks the Dogecoin price at the start of the 2:00AM to 2:15AM ET window, so the outcome cannot be inferred from this record. Because the evidence contains no resolution, the actual result is unknown. The wording is specific to the Chainlink DOGE/USD TWAP stream and this exact time range, so it should not be compared directly with contracts that use other sources, windows, or close times. A price difference between different contracts is not an arbitrage opportunity unless their rules and timing match.
References
- Polymarket: Dogecoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window price contract on Dogecoin, listed on Polymarket under the title "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET" [1]. It belongs to the crypto category and asks whether the price of DOGE will move up or down over one fifteen-minute window [1]. The contract's rules are based on a time-weighted average price rather than a single price at one moment. Under the rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Dogecoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-31T06:15:00Z [1]. The price data comes from Chainlink. The rules specify its DOGE/USD time-weighted average price data stream, labeled as a 60-second stream, and state that the contract concerns that Chainlink stream and not other sources or spot markets [1]. This matters because a trader reading a general news price or a different exchange's quote could reach a different view of the same window than the contract's own data source would show. The saved snapshot lists two outcomes, "Up" and "Down", each at a price of 0.5 [1]. These are prices from the observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The snapshot does not include volume data, so it says nothing about how much trading took place or how liquid the market is.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Dogecoin's price over a specific fifteen-minute window, as recorded by one named data stream. Its resolution depends on whether the time-weighted average over that window is at or above the price at the window's start [1]. Because the outcome is tied to a time-weighted average rather than a closing spot price, the contract's result can differ from a simple comparison of the endpoints of the window. Anyone interpreting the market should read the rules closely, since the stated data source is the sole reference for resolution [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves Up if the Chainlink DOGE/USD time-weighted average price over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and Down otherwise [1].
Which price source is used to settle the contract?
The rules specify the Chainlink DOGE/USD time-weighted average price data stream and state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
Do the displayed prices show how likely each outcome is?
The displayed prices are snapshots taken at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
What is the scheduled end time of this market?
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T06:15:00Z, which is the time stated in the contract record [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.