BNB Up or Down - October 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
PM $0
1
1
BNB Up or Down - October 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a short-window binary market on BNB priced in USD, titled "BNB Up or Down - October 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET" [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The named resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns this Chainlink data and not other sources or spot markets [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-16T06:25:00.000Z [1]. This is the close time in the provider data. It is separate from the actual resolution, and the supplied evidence does not record a resolution result.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T20:38:45.765Z [1]. The recorded prices are "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. Because the observation predates retrieval by about four and a half hours, these figures describe the market at that earlier point. They should not be read as a live quote.
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. In this record the two outcomes sum to 1.000, and the market sits close to an even split. The evidence contains no volume, liquidity, or trader information, so it supports no conclusion about depth or participation.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. Coverage for this saved event is complete, with one included market and no partial sample [1]. This does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome, but for this binary contract the two recorded outcomes are the full set in the saved data.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do. It does not include the BNB price at the start of the window or the TWAP during the window, so the outcome cannot be inferred from this snapshot. The observation came roughly fourteen hours before the listed close, so the price may have changed since it was recorded. No comparison with other platforms is available, and differences between contracts should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window crypto price contract listed on Polymarket under the title "BNB Up or Down - October 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET" [1]. The contract covers a five-minute window, from 2:20 to 2:25 AM Eastern Time on October 16. The listed end time is 2026-10-16T06:25:00Z, which is 2:25 AM Eastern Daylight Time, and the contract has two outcomes, Up and Down [1]. The rules define the outcome by comparing two prices. The contract resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, which is the 60-second TWAP stream named in the rules [1]. The rules state that the contract concerns only that Chainlink data stream and not other sources or spot markets, so a move on another exchange would not by itself determine the result [1]. The market record reflects one event with one included market, and the saved provider data lists the status as active at the time it was retrieved [1]. The listed end time falls after the retrieval time, so the contract had not closed when the record was captured. Because the record is a snapshot, anyone reading it later should check the provider for the current status and any final resolution.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether BNB's Chainlink time-weighted average price over the five-minute window ends at or above the starting price for that window [1]. Because the rule compares a window average with a starting reference rather than a single closing print, the outcome depends on how the price behaves across the whole interval, not only at its endpoint [1]. The contract also depends on one named data source. Readers who want to understand the result should look at the Chainlink stream the rules name, since that is the stated basis for resolution [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price does the contract use to decide the outcome?
The rules use the time-weighted average price of BNB generated by Chainlink over the time range in the title, and specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1].
What counts as an Up result?
The contract resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Do other exchanges or spot markets decide this contract?
No. The rules say the contract is about the price in the Chainlink TWAP data stream for BNB/USD and not about any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the window end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-16T06:25:00Z, which corresponds to 2:25 AM Eastern Daylight Time on October 16 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
