Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T12:00:06.088Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on the title "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET" [1]. According to the saved rules, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader should not assume this contract matches a spot price chart, an exchange quote, or a contract on another platform, because the measured price and averaging method are specific.
The title gives the window in Eastern Time, while the listed end time is "2026-10-27T08:45:00.000Z" [1]. The rules therefore define the window in one time zone and the listed close in UTC, and a reader comparing them should check both.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation was taken at 2026-10-26T12:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-26T12:22:02Z [1]. These are historical snapshots of a provider record, not live quotes. The contract's status at retrieval was "active" [1].
The saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These figures are the only prices in the evidence for this contract. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, and the evidence does not explain it.
The sample covers one saved market from one provider event, with no partial sampling flagged [1]. Because the event has only two outcomes in the record, there is no omitted outcome to compare. Nothing here should be combined with other Hyperliquid contracts, since different windows or wording would not describe the same outcome.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the price of HYPE/USD at any moment, the TWAP values that will be computed, or the price at the start of the window. It also does not show whether the contract will close or resolve as listed, and it contains no information about trading activity or the number of participants.
Because the snapshot is from October 26, 2026 and the close is listed for October 27, 2026 at 08:45 UTC, the prices may have changed by the time a reader views them. Any current comparison requires a fresh provider observation.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T12:00:06.088Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a short-window contract on the price of Hyperliquid, measured in HYPE/USD terms. It asks whether the time-weighted average price over a specific five-minute window will be at or above the price at the start of that window. The listed window runs from 4:40 AM to 4:45 AM ET on October 27, and the listed end time is 08:45 UTC on October 27 [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the average over the window is greater than or equal to the starting price, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The resolution rules name a specific data feed rather than a general market price. The outcome is determined by the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream produced by Chainlink, using a 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The rules state that the contract concerns the price in that Chainlink stream and not the price from any other source or spot market [1]. A trader therefore needs to read the contract's measurement method, not simply the asset's price on an exchange, to understand what will decide the result. The timing of this page is worth separating from the contract itself. The market data was observed at 12:00 UTC on October 26, 2026, and the rules were retrieved at 12:22 UTC the same day [1]. The contract window has not closed as of that retrieval, and the evidence does not show a resolution. Any price shown on this page is a snapshot from the observation time, not a live quote.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink time-weighted average price for HYPE/USD over a five-minute window, from 4:40 AM to 4:45 AM ET on October 27, is at least as high as the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the average is compared with the starting price, the outcome depends on the path of the feed during the window and not only on where the price ends. The rules specify the data stream and the window precisely, so the contract's result is defined by that feed rather than by any other reference price [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of the Chainlink HYPE/USD stream over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Which price source decides the outcome?
The rules name the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink as the resolution source and state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the result [1].
When does the contract window end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T08:45:00Z, which corresponds to the close of the 4:45 AM ET end of the window [1].
Has this market already resolved?
The evidence does not show a resolution. The page was observed before the listed window closed, so the outcome is not established by the supplied information [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.