Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied contract is titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET" and is listed in the Crypto category on Polymarket [1]. Its rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The rules also specify the measurement source. The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this with a contract that uses a different price feed, averaging method, or time window should treat the two as measuring different things, even if both refer to Bitcoin.
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T01:50:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's closing time in UTC, not an announced result or a resolution time.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-27T10:40:33.611Z [1]. The prices below describe the market at the observation time only. They are not live quotes.
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495
These are the only two outcomes in the saved sample, and they are binary contracts on the same event. The saved snapshot lists the contract as "active" [1]. Because the observation predates the retrieval time, the status and prices may have changed before this page was retrieved.
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved sample includes one market from one platform, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Trading volume is not included in the evidence, so nothing can be said about liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did, and it does not show how many participants held either position. It also does not include any information about the Bitcoin price path during the window or after the observation time. Whether the contract resolves "Up" or "Down" cannot be determined from this evidence, because the window runs through the listed end time and no resolution is recorded.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-duration crypto contract on Polymarket titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET." It asks whether Bitcoin's price over a five-minute window will finish at or above where it started. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measurement is defined by a specific data feed rather than by general market prices. The stated resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules say the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink feed for the BTC/USD pair, not according to other sources or spot markets [1]. Users reading the contract should therefore check the Chainlink feed named in the rules, not a exchange chart, when they want to understand how the outcome would be determined. The event record lists an end time of 2026-10-28T01:50:00.000Z [1]. That is the listed end time in the contract rules. The saved record reports the status as active [1]. The window described in the title falls after the observation and retrieval times recorded for this snapshot, so the outcome was not determined when the record was captured. The record does not show how the window ultimately closed. Because the contract is a binary outcome with only two named results, the saved record includes both "Up" and "Down" as outcomes [1]. Its price for each outcome reflects a point-in-time snapshot of trading activity and is not a guaranteed purchase price.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average Bitcoin price over a specific five-minute window, as reported by a named Chainlink data stream, is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the outcome depends on a particular data feed and averaging method, the result can differ from a simple comparison of the starting and ending prices on other platforms. Readers interested in the contract should focus on the stated rules and the listed end time rather than on any single price snapshot [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range, and Down otherwise [1].
Are other exchanges or spot markets used to decide the outcome?
No. The rules state that the market concerns the price according to the Chainlink TWAP data stream, not according to any other sources or spot markets [1].
When is the listed end time for this contract?
The saved event record lists an end time of 2026-10-28T01:50:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.