How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

Name: How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$71.88K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

Vol

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $71.88K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $71.88K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2026?	Poly	20%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2026?	Poly	16%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2026?	Poly	14%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026?	Poly	14%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026?	Poly	9%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?	Poly	9%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?	Poly	8%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026?	Poly	6%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

20%

Top Probability

$71.88K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (350 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.

This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.

This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Any individual participating "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $71.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $82.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.88)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $10.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $632
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $48.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.3% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $956
  DATA: [Yes: 15.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.2% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

349d 15h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

Polymarket

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