Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied Polymarket event covers the University of Central Florida (UCF) 2026 regular-season win total. Each contract asks whether the team will record more than a listed number of wins. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team's regular season win total exceeds the listed number" [1]. The source adds that "Only official regular-season games count" and that "Conference championship games, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count" [1].

Canceled games do not help the total. The source says that "canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins" [1]. It also says the market resolves "No" if the season is cancelled, or if it is "postponed after December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET," or if the wins cannot be determined in that window [1]. The primary resolution source is official NCAA and conference records, though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].

Reading the snapshot

The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z and retrieved at 2026-10-18T04:20:11.419Z. These are provider and retrieval times, not resolution. The five contracts list a closing time of 2026-12-27T04:59:00.000Z, which the source gives as the listed end time [1].

The snapshot includes five thresholds: more than 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 wins. The Yes prices were 0.9615, 0.84, 0.59, 0.34, and 0.205, and the No prices were 0.0385, 0.16, 0.41, 0.66, and 0.795 [1]. Prices fall as the threshold rises, which is the expected ordering for a series of "more than" contracts. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities.

The sample covers all five saved markets for this event, with no partial sampling flagged. It does not show every possible outcome a provider might list.

What remains uncertain

This evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it contains no current news about the team's schedule, roster, or results. Volume and trader counts are not included, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each view.

Other platforms' contracts may use different wording, close times, or resolution sources. Prices on different contracts should not be compared or averaged unless their rules match.

References

1. Polymarket: NCAA Football: UCF 2026 Win Total. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z.