Spain General Election: Almería Winner
PM $2.1K
1
5
Spain General Election: Almería Winner
PM $2.1K
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 30, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is PP at 75%.
Polymarket
- PP75%
- Vox18%
- PSOE9.4%
- Podemos5.8%
- Broad Front (FA)3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $2.1K
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Almería as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Almería, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Almería, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Polymarket event asks which party wins the most seats in the constituency of Almería in the Spanish general election. The source states that the legislative elections "are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026" [1]. Each market in this snapshot is a separate yes-or-no question about one party: PP, Vox, PSOE, Broad Front (FA), or Podemos.
The rules define how seats are attributed. For example, PSOE includes "lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia" [1]. Podemos counts "only lists presented by Podemos on its own" [1]. Ties are broken first by valid votes in Almería and then alphabetically [1]. Readers comparing parties should check these definitions, because a party's label on a ballot may not match the list group the contract counts.
The listed end time is 2026-11-30T04:59:00.000Z. If the results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is a contract date, not a confirmed result date.
Reading the snapshot
The observation time is 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z, and the retrieval time is 2026-10-23T02:57:19.134Z. These values describe when this data was saved. They do not show current prices.
The saved Yes prices were: PP 0.775, Vox 0.165, PSOE 0.07, Broad Front 0.0495, and Podemos 0.045 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes and No prices for each contract sum to 1 in the saved data, but the snapshot does not show spreads, depth, or trading volume.
The contracts should be read one at a time. The Yes price on each contract applies only to that party's question. The prices are not a ranked list of one combined field, and they should not be averaged or compared as an arbitrage signal.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes all five saved markets for this event (5 of 5, partialSample false). However, the source warns that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The snapshot does not show an "Other" price, so the reader should not infer anything about it. Missing parties, if any, are not evidence that their chances are low.
The evidence also does not explain why the prices are at these levels, and it contains no information about the election campaign, results, or trader activity.
References
- Polymarket: Spain General Election: Almería Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks which party will win the most seats in the Congress of Deputies from the constituency of Almería in the Spanish general election. The contract rules state that legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026 [1]. The market resolves according to the party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Almería constituency as a result of that election [1]. Parties are ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists in Almería. If two or more parties tie on seats, the tie is broken by total valid votes received by their lists in Almería, with higher totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, the tie is broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names [1]. Seats and votes follow the electoral list on which they were obtained, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates [1]. The rules define resolution in more detail than the question title suggests. If the results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, and where there is ambiguity, on the results reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior [1]. The listed end time of the contract is 2026-11-30T04:59:00.000Z [1], which is the contract's closing time and not the date on which resolution occurs.
Historical Context
The supplied background on earlier Spanish elections is limited. A Wikipedia article describes a general election held in Spain on 23 July 2023 to elect the members of the 15th Cortes Generales. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies and 208 of 266 seats in the Senate were up for election, and it was the first time since 1839 that a general election in Spain was held in July [2]. A separate Wikipedia list covers constituency results for the 1923 Spanish general election [3]. These sources are historical background only and do not establish current election status.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single constituency rather than the national result. It asks which party's lists take the most seats in Almería, so a party can win this contract without winning the most seats nationally [1]. Because seats are ranked within one constituency, the contract depends on how the rules attribute lists to parties, including the treatment of joint lists and cooperation arrangements. The rules state that electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, and later changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership are not considered [1]. The contract's outcome is therefore tied to the official seat count and list attribution rather than to alliances or later political changes.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this contract measure the national winner of the Spanish election?
No. It resolves according to the party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Almería constituency of the Congress of Deputies [1].
How are ties resolved?
Seat ties are broken by total valid votes received by the parties' lists in Almería. If parties remain tied, alphabetical order of the listed party names is used [1].
What happens if the results are not definitively known by the deadline?
If the results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Do coalition agreements or later party switches affect resolution?
No. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, and subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership are not considered [1].
What sources decide the result if reporting is ambiguous?
The market resolves on a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, it resolves solely on the results reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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