XRP Up or Down - October 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
PM $0
1
1
XRP Up or Down - October 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair XRP/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "XRP Up or Down - October 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET" in the Crypto category [1]. The rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink XRP/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market is "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-20T02:45:00.000Z [1]. Because the title gives the window in Eastern Time, a reader should check that the UTC listed end time matches the intended window before comparing it with other contracts.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-19T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T03:19:58Z [1]. At observation, "Up" was priced at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshots of quoted prices. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00 in this sample, which is consistent with a binary contract. The sample contains one market from one platform, with no partial sampling, so there is no cross-platform comparison here [1]. The saved data does not include volume or trader counts, so this snapshot cannot indicate liquidity or how many participants hold either side.
What remains uncertain
The status recorded at retrieval was "active," and the contract was not archived [1]. The data does not show a resolution outcome. Any current price may differ from this snapshot, and the snapshot should not be read as today's market. The evidence does not explain why prices sit near even odds, and it does not establish how the TWAP will compare with the starting price. Anyone comparing this contract with a similarly named market elsewhere should check the exact resolution source, averaging method, and end time, since those details determine what each contract measures. A difference in price between two such contracts does not by itself indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: XRP Up or Down - October 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window price contract on the XRP token, listed on Polymarket under the title "XRP Up or Down - October 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET" [1]. The contract asks whether XRP's price direction over a fifteen-minute range will be up or down, and it is grouped under the crypto category [1]. The resolution rule is specific. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of XRP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The average is generated by Chainlink, and the stated resolution source is Chainlink's XRP/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval [1]. The rule says the market concerns that Chainlink data stream for the XRP/USD pair and not other sources or spot markets [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-20T02:45:00Z, which is the close of the window described in the title [1]. The provider lists the market's status as active [1]. The evidence retrieved on October 19, 2026 at about 03:20 UTC therefore shows a contract whose window had not yet closed, and no resolved outcome is recorded in the supplied material.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of XRP's Chainlink-based time-weighted average price across one fifteen-minute window, not a single spot print at the end of the window [1]. Because the comparison is between the average over the range and the price at the start of the range, a contract can resolve differently from a simple comparison of the opening and closing prices. The rule text is the reference for how the outcome is determined [1]. The contract also depends on a named data feed. Chainlink's XRP/USD TWAP stream is the resolution source, so the rule points users to that feed rather than to general market quotes [1]. Anyone reading a price for this contract should keep in mind that the rule ties resolution to that data stream and not to other exchanges or spot markets [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the Chainlink time-weighted average price of XRP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and Down otherwise [1].
Which data source is used for resolution?
The stated resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval, rather than other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract's window end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T02:45:00Z, which corresponds to the close of the 10:30PM to 10:45PM ET window on October 19 [1].
Has this contract resolved?
Not according to the supplied material. The provider lists the market as active, and the listed end time is after the retrieval time, so no outcome is recorded in the evidence [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
PM $51.44
XRP Up or Down - October 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.