Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
PM $13.0K · K 42.8K contracts
4
44
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
PM $13.0K · K 42.8K contracts
4
44
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $13.0K · K 42.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
44
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
About This Event
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied rules say that if a named candidate "finishes in 3rd place in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Ranking uses the vote counts "as published by the Central Election Commission, whether or not a second round is held" [1]. Exact ties resolve proportionally, at "1/number of tied entities" [1]. The rules also say that if a candidate not listed on the event finishes third, "every market on this event resolves NO" [1]. Each candidate has a separate market, so the contracts are not interchangeable.
The event title and rules refer to "On Oct 25, 2026" [1]. The market records list an end date of 2027-10-25T14:00:00.000Z, and the rules state that the listed end time is "not supplied" [1]. This snapshot does not explain that gap, so readers should check the platform's current terms before relying on either date. The rules also say the market "will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T21:13:05.721Z. They describe that moment only and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The eight markets in this sample are all included, and the sample is not marked as partial. Even so, the sample warning notes that it "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
The highest quoted Yes price is for Kostadin Kostadinov at 0.815, with a No price of 0.185. Andrey Gyurov, Radostin Vasilev, Ivaylo Simeonov and Ivelin Mihaylov are each at 0.035 Yes. Nikolay Nenchev and Ivan Hristanov are each at 0.025 Yes, and Iliana Yotova is at 0.015 Yes. The Yes prices across these eight contracts sum to about 1.02, so they should not be read as a complete probability distribution.
Volume and trader counts are not in this snapshot, so the prices cannot be read as liquidity or agreement among participants.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is. It also does not establish the number of traders, the depth of the order book, or how the prices have changed over time. Because each contract is a separate yes or no question on a different candidate, a price difference between two contracts is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Kalshi: Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a Kalshi market tied to the first round of Bulgaria's 2026 presidential election [1]. Each market in the event asks whether one named candidate will finish third in that first round. Under the stated rules, a market resolves to Yes if the named candidate finishes third according to certified results [1]. Ranking is based on the number of votes each candidate receives in the first round, as published by the Central Election Commission. The rules say this applies whether or not a second round is held and regardless of who advances to or wins it [1]. In case of exact ties, the market resolves proportionally, with each tied entity receiving 1/number of tied entities [1]. The rules also set out several special cases. If a candidate not listed on the event finishes third, every market on the event resolves No [1]. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the ballot list is published, but remain on the ballot, are ranked by the votes they receive [1]. The market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The event heading refers to Oct 25, 2026 [1]. That date appears in the contract rules and does not by itself establish an announced election schedule. The saved market records list an end date of October 25, 2027, while the provider excerpt says no listed end time was supplied [1]. Because these fields do not match, the provider's contract terms should be checked for the exact closing and resolution mechanics.
Historical Context
Wikipedia's article on the 2021 Bulgarian general election describes earlier national voting in Bulgaria. General elections were held on 14 November 2021 to elect both the president and the National Assembly, and a second presidential round was held on 21 November 2021 because no candidate received a majority in the first round [2]. The same article notes that these were the country's third parliamentary elections in 2021, and that no party was able to form a government after the April and July elections [2]. A Wikipedia article on the 2026 national electoral calendar lists national and federal elections held or scheduled in 2026, with specific dates given where they are known [3]. That background describes past and general scheduling information only and does not confirm the current status of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential contest.
Why It Matters
The contract measures finishing position in the first round rather than who wins the election. Because a market can resolve Yes when a candidate finishes third, it does not depend on that candidate advancing to a second round [1]. Each of the eight saved markets asks about a different candidate, so they are separate contracts with separate prices and should not be treated as a single linked outcome set. The saved sample includes all eight markets for this event, but the sample does not establish that every possible real-world candidate is listed [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the market depend on whether a second round is held?
No. The rules say ranking is based on first-round votes whether or not a second round is held and regardless of who advances to or wins it [1].
What happens if a candidate withdraws or is disqualified?
If the candidate withdraws or is disqualified after the ballot list is published but remains on the ballot, the candidate is ranked based on the votes received [1].
What happens if a candidate who is not listed on the event finishes third?
Every market on this event resolves No [1].
Does a price on this market show the likelihood of an outcome?
Not on its own. The saved prices are snapshots and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
