Solana Up or Down - October 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract, titled "Solana Up or Down - October 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET", covers a five-minute window [1]. The saved rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the SOL/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-16T05:00:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation, taken at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from one provider event. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. In this record the two prices sum to 1.00, with Up 0.010 above Down [1]. The source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T21:33:53.937Z, so the figures describe the earlier observation time, not a live reading [1].
The sample contains one market, and the coverage record marks it as complete for this saved event (partialSample: false) [1]. No volume figure is supplied, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.
The supplied evidence contains no other platform's contract for comparison. Any comparison would need to account for the source, the window, and the close time, since a contract with different wording measures something different and should not be averaged with this one.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices sit where they do. It contains only one observation, so it shows no movement over time. The provider reported the market as active at retrieval, but the window's listed end time falls after the snapshot, so the record does not show how the contract resolved. The sample confirms that these saved markets were included, but it does not establish that Up and Down are every possible outcome. Readers who need current figures or the final result should check the live listing and the Chainlink stream directly.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window crypto price contract listed on Polymarket for Solana, with the title "Solana Up or Down - October 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET" [1]. It asks whether the price of Solana in U.S. dollars moves up or down over a five-minute range. The rules say the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The measure is an average, not a single closing price. A TWAP gives weight to the price across the whole window, so a brief spike or dip near the end does not decide the outcome by itself. The comparison is against the starting price of the range, so the question is whether the averaged price across the window sits at or above where the window began [1]. The rules name the resolution source as information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second TWAP configuration [1]. The contract also states that it concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream for the SOL/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. A trader who reads prices on a different exchange or aggregator should therefore expect that the contract may not follow those figures. The listed end time is 2026-10-16T05:00:00Z [1]. That corresponds to 1:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on October 16, which matches the end of the window in the title. The listed end time is the scheduled close of the contract's range, not a record of when it resolved. The provider status in the saved record at observation time was active [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Solana's averaged dollar price over a five-minute window finishes at or above the price at the start of that window, as reported by the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream [1]. Because it uses an average over the window and a single named data stream, the result depends on that specific feed rather than on the general market view of Solana's price. Traders reading the contract need to focus on the rule wording: the window in the title, the start-of-range comparison, and the exclusion of other sources and spot markets [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether the market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves to Up if the TWAP of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1].
Which price data does the contract use?
The resolution source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules state that prices from other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
Does a single price spike decide the result?
The rule uses a time-weighted average over the range, not a single price at one moment, so the result reflects the average across the window [1].
When is the scheduled end of this window?
The listed end time is 2026-10-16T05:00:00Z, which matches the end of the 12:55AM to 1:00AM ET range in the title [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
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