Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
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11
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
PM $3.75
1
11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between Aurora Gaming and TheMongolz in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against TheMongolz. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against Aurora Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 24, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T00:00:06.191Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The main market covers one match: "Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage." It resolves to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora wins and to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz wins [1]. The match was "initially scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET" [1]. If it is canceled, ends in a tie, or ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, the market resolves 50-50 [1]. A postponed match counts only if it is rescheduled to a start time on or before November 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and the rules set a 50-50 outcome otherwise [1]. The stated resolution source is hltv.org, with a consensus of credible reporting as a fallback if final results are not published within 2 hours of the event's conclusion [1].
The listed end time for the main winner market is 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z, while the Map 1 and Map 2 winner markets list 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z [1]. These are contract close times, not confirmed match times, and they differ from one another.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-18T00:00:06.191Z, and the record was retrieved at 00:26:55 UTC on the same day [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
At that observation, the main winner market priced Aurora Gaming at 0.75 and TheMongolz at 0.25 [1]. The Map Handicap contract, "AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)," priced Aurora at 0.635 and TheMongolz at 0.365 [1]. These are separate contracts with different terms, so their prices should not be combined or treated as one estimate.
The map-level winner contracts were near even. Map 1 Winner priced Aurora at 0.50 and TheMongolz at 0.50 [1]. Map 2 Winner priced Aurora at 0.52 and TheMongolz at 0.48 [1]. Totals and handicap contracts for individual maps also sit close to 0.50 on each side [1]. Volume and the number of traders are not part of this snapshot, so the prices do not indicate liquidity or agreement.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes all 11 saved markets for this event, and the record marks it as not partial [1]. The source also states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The evidence contains no information explaining why prices are where they are, and it contains no news about the teams, the event, or the schedule beyond the contract wording. Only one provider event is included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The contracts differ in wording and close times, so a difference in price between them does not indicate an opportunity to trade.
References
- Polymarket: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T00:00:06.191Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 18, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event for a Counter-Strike match between Aurora Gaming and TheMongolz, a best-of-three (BO3) round in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage [1]. The event lists the match as "the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between Aurora Gaming and TheMongolz" and gives an initial schedule of October 24, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET [1]. The match has not been played according to the saved event, so the contracts described here are open rather than settled. The main contract is a winner market. It resolves to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming wins the match, and to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz wins [1]. The saved event also includes related markets on map handicaps, round totals, map winners, and a games total, all tied to the same match [1]. The rules give specific treatment to unusual outcomes. If the match is canceled or ends in a tie, the market resolves 50-50 [1]. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, which is 14 calendar days after the original start [1]. If the rescheduled start falls within that deadline, the market resolves on the match as played; otherwise it resolves 50-50 even if the match is later played [1]. A match that is forfeited, disqualified, or ends by walkover before it starts resolves 50-50, while a match that begins but is not completed resolves to the team that wins because of the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover [1]. The stated resolution source is official information from hltv.org. If hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event concludes, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead, including video evidence [1]. The rules also say minor name variations, abbreviations, sponsor tags, and academy designations are treated as referring to the same team when the intended team can be clearly identified within the competition [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures which team wins one scheduled match in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, as defined by the rules in the saved event [1]. Because the outcome is a single binary result, the price on each side reflects the market's current view of that result at the time of the snapshot, not a verified probability [1]. The rules matter as much as the match itself: the postponement window, the 50-50 treatment for cancellations and forfeits, and the fallback to consensus reporting determine how the contract settles in situations that are not a normal finished match [1]. The related markets measure different parts of the same match. Map handicap contracts apply a round margin to a specific side, round total contracts ask whether a map will exceed 21.5 rounds, and the games total asks whether the series goes above or below 2.5 games [1]. Each of these uses its own end time in the saved event, and map-level contracts list an earlier end time than the match-level contracts [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-18 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the main Aurora Gaming versus TheMongolz contract resolve to?
It resolves to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming wins the match and to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz wins [1].
What happens if the match is postponed?
The match must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before that deadline, the market resolves based on the match as played. Otherwise it resolves 50-50, even if the match is later played [1].
What happens if the match is canceled or ends in a tie?
The market resolves 50-50 [1].
What source is used to resolve the market?
The stated source is official information from hltv.org. If hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead, including video evidence [1].
Does a price on this market show the chance that a team will win?
The saved event reports prices as snapshots taken at a specific observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as confirmed chances of an outcome [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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