Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
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Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T21:00:06.793Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one Polymarket contract, titled "Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET" [1]. The rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader should not assume that a spot exchange price or another ETH price feed determines the outcome.
The listed end time is 2026-11-01T19:15:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's close time, not a record of when the market resolved. The supplied evidence does not show a resolution.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-31T21:00:06Z, and the page was retrieved at 2026-10-31T22:35:38Z [1]. These are two different times, and the prices describe only the observation time. The market status was reported as active [1].
The saved quotes are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two outcomes sum to 1.000 in this snapshot, so the Up price sits slightly above the Down price.
The sample includes the only saved market for this event, and the coverage record shows one market included out of one total with no partial sample [1]. The selection note says counts "describe the saved provider event, not the whole real-world field" [1]. Because this is a binary contract with only these two outcomes, no outcome was omitted from the sample.
The volume figure is not in this record, so no liquidity or trader count can be inferred.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the quoted prices are where they are. It also does not show any later prices, so the snapshot should not be read as a current quote.
Other ETH "Up or Down" contracts with different windows, different resolution sources, or different listed end times are not comparable with this one. A price difference between contracts does not, by itself, indicate an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T21:00:06.793Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-duration crypto contract on Polymarket that asks whether Ethereum will be higher or lower over a fixed 15-minute window, titled "Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET" [1]. The rules state that the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The contract therefore compares an averaged price across the window with the starting price, rather than comparing the price at the end of the window with the price at the start. The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, which the rules identify by name and web address [1]. The rules also state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink TWAP data stream for the ETH/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. A trader reading the contract should therefore focus on that specific data stream, since other exchanges or indexes may show different prices. The saved provider record lists an end time of 2026-11-01T19:15:00.000Z and a provider status of active [1]. The end time is the timestamp in the contract rules for when the window closes. It is not evidence that the window has passed, that the market has resolved, or that any outcome has been determined. The provider's observation time for the saved record was 2026-10-31T21:00:06.793Z, which is an earlier snapshot than the retrieval time for this article [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink ETH/USD time-weighted average price over the stated 15-minute window is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the outcome depends on an average over the window rather than a single closing price, the result can differ from a simple comparison of the start and end prices. The contract's wording also limits the measured price to the named Chainlink data stream, so it is a narrow rule about one specified reference price and not a general statement about Ethereum's market value [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-31 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink ETH/USD time-weighted average price over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source is used to settle the contract?
The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets are not used for this contract [1].
Does the listed end time mean the market has already resolved?
No. The saved record lists an end time of 2026-11-01T19:15:00.000Z and an active provider status [1]. The end time comes from the contract details and does not by itself show that the window has closed or that an outcome has been determined.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.