Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a short-window market titled "Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET" [1]. The saved rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader should therefore not compare this contract to a spot price on another venue, or to an up-or-down contract elsewhere that uses different wording, a different averaging window, or a different close time.
Reading the snapshot
The saved market data was observed at 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-30T18:29:05.060Z [1]. The prices below describe the observation time, not the retrieval time or the present moment. At observation, the "Up" outcome was quoted at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. In this record the two prices sum to 1.00, and they are close to each other.
The listed end time is 2026-10-30T21:20:00.000Z, and the saved status was "active" [1]. That status comes from the saved record, so it does not confirm whether the market is open when you read this. The record does not include volume, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many traders took part.
What remains uncertain
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows that this is the only market saved for the event, so there is no comparison with other outcomes [1]. The evidence does not explain what drove the quoted prices, and it does not report a resolution, so the result is unknown from this record. Because the contract compares a TWAP over the stated window with the price at the window's start, a quote taken at 12:00 UTC does not show the price path during the window. Finally, the record contains no other platform's version of this contract, so any price difference should not be read as an opportunity without matching wording, windows, and close times.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket contract titled "Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET." It belongs to the Crypto category and asks whether the price of Solana (SOL) in a five-minute window will end up higher or lower than where the window began [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measure is a time-weighted average rather than a single trade price. The average is taken over the full window, so a brief spike or dip at one moment does not by itself determine the outcome. What counts is how the averaged price compares with the starting price [1]. The contract is specific about its data source. The rules name the SOL/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink as the resolution source, and state that the market concerns the price in that stream rather than any other source or spot market [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a price on an exchange or aggregator should therefore expect that the figures may differ, because the contract follows the Chainlink stream only. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-10-30T21:20:00.000Z, which corresponds to the close of the 5:15 to 5:20 PM ET window in the title [1]. The end time marks when the window closes under the contract rules. It is not a separate announced event.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a very short-term directional question about Solana: whether the time-weighted average of its price over a five-minute window finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the rules tie resolution to a named Chainlink data stream rather than general market prices, the contract tests movement in that specific feed. Readers interested in the asset more broadly should keep in mind that a contract on this narrow window and data source answers a different question from a general price forecast [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
The contract resolves to "Up" if the TWAP of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What makes this contract resolve to Down?
The contract resolves to "Down" when the TWAP over the stated range is below the price at the beginning of that range, since the rules say the market resolves to "Down" otherwise [1].
Which price feed decides the outcome?
The rules specify the SOL/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink and state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the result [1].
When does the contract's window close?
The listed end time is 2026-10-30T21:20:00.000Z, matching the 5:20 PM ET close shown in the title [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.