Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US unemployment rate at year-end 2028

Total Volume

$2.46K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

US unemployment rate at year-end 2028

Vol

$2.46K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.46K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.46K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.0%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.0%?	Kalshi	95%
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.5%?	Kalshi	90%
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.0%?	Kalshi	82%
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.5%?	Kalshi	74%
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 5.0%?	Kalshi	66%
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 5.5%?	Kalshi	59%
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 6.0%?	Kalshi	51%
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 6.5%?	Kalshi	43%
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 7.0%?	Kalshi	36%
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 7.5%?	Kalshi	28%
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 8.0%?	Kalshi	20%
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 8.5%?	Kalshi	13%
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 9.0%?	Kalshi	9%
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 9.5%?	Kalshi	8%
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 10.0%?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$2.46K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

December 2028 If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate, U-3, for December 2028 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31. The Expiration Value is the first non-preliminary seasonally a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US unemployment rate at year-end 2028
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** December 2028

If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate, U-3, for December 2028 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31. The Expiration Value is the first non-preliminary seasonally a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 is above 9.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 9.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 9.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $902
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 8.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 8.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 7.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 7.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 6.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 6.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $52
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 5.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 5.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 82.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 10.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 12, 2029): Vol $502
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US unemployment rate at year-end 2028

Volume$2.46K

Markets15

15 of 15

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KALSHI

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.0%?

If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, t

KALSHI

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.0¢No 10.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.5%?

If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 is above 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, t

KALSHI

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.0¢No 18.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.0%?

If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 is above 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, t

KALSHI

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 74.0¢No 26.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.5%?

If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 is above 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, t

KALSHI

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 5.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.0¢No 34.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 5.0%?

If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 is above 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, t

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45¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/IXtM5w" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US unemployment rate at year-end 2028"></iframe>

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US unemployment rate at year-end 2028

US unemployment rate at year-end 2028

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Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.0%?

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Events (1)

US unemployment rate at year-end 2028

Markets (15)

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.0%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.0%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.5%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.5%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.0%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.0%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.5%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.5%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 5.0%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 5.0%?

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Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.0%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US unemployment rate at year-end 2028

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.0%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.0%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.5%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 3.5%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.0%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.0%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.5%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 4.5%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 5.0%?

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 5.0%?

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