XRP Up or Down - October 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET
PM $0
1
1
XRP Up or Down - October 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair XRP/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract covers XRP over a short window stated in its title, 11:25PM to 11:30PM ET on October 19 [1]. The rules say the market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink time-weighted average price (TWAP) for that window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the XRP/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules state that the market is about this data stream "and not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-20T03:30:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time, not a record of how the contract resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T08:37:10.302Z [1]. In that snapshot, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are observed prices at one moment. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the data does not show why they were at those levels.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record marks it as complete for that event, with no partial sample [1]. The saved data does not include volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each view.
Because only one event is included, no comparison with other platforms' XRP contracts is possible here. If another contract shows a different price, its wording, reference source, window, or close time may differ. Those differences alone do not indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the starting price for the window, the realized TWAP, or any resolution outcome, so the result cannot be determined from this record. The status was "active" at the observation time [1], but that does not establish the contract's status now. The retrieval time is earlier than the listed end time, so the window had not closed when the data was retrieved.
The saved data relies on a single source, and the sample notice states that it does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome in the real-world field [1].
References
- Polymarket: XRP Up or Down - October 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term crypto price contract on XRP, listed on Polymarket under the title "XRP Up or Down - October 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET" [1]. The contract covers a five-minute window, 11:25 PM to 11:30 PM Eastern Time on October 19. Its outcome depends on a time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP over that window, not on a single price at one moment [1]. The rules state that the market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP across the window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The comparison is therefore between an average over the window and the starting level, so a price that rises and falls within the window can still produce either result depending on how the average compares with the opening price. The resolution source is the XRP/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, with a 60-second interval, as named in the rules [1]. The rules also specify that other sources and spot markets do not determine the outcome. A price on a different exchange or data feed is not the reference for this contract [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-20T03:30:00Z, which corresponds to the close of the 11:30 PM ET window [1]. That end time is the contract's closing point under its rules. It is not a record of when the outcome was determined or paid out, and the supplied evidence does not include a resolution.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether XRP's average price over a specific five-minute window, as recorded in one named Chainlink data stream, is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the reference is a time-weighted average, the contract does not depend on the exact price at the final moment of the window. Because the reference is one data stream, the contract is about that feed's figures and not about XRP prices generally [1]. Anyone reading a price for this market should keep those two definitions in mind.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" result mean for this contract?
According to the rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink XRP/USD TWAP over the 11:25 PM to 11:30 PM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Which price source decides the outcome?
The resolution source is the Chainlink XRP/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval. The rules say the market concerns that feed and not other sources or spot markets [1].
Why is the contract based on a TWAP instead of a single price?
The rules define the outcome using a time-weighted average price over the window, so the result reflects the average across the period rather than one price at one time [1].
What is the listed end time of this market?
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T03:30:00Z, which matches the close of the 11:30 PM ET window [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET
PM $41.18
XRP Up or Down - October 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
PM $21.76XRP Up or Down - October 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.