Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will the debt limit be increased?

Total Volume

$2.70K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

When will the debt limit be increased?

Vol

$2.70K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.70K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.70K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	91%
Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Oct 1, 2027?	Kalshi	61%
Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	46%
Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Mar 1, 2027?	Kalshi	32%
Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	31%
Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

91%

Top Probability

$2.70K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt If legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt has become law after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the debt limit be increased?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt

If legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt has become law after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Oct 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 1, 2027): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $29
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Mar 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $341
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

When will the debt limit be increased?

Volume$2.70K

Markets6

6 of 6

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KALSHI

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.0¢No 9.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2028?

If legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Oct 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Oct 1, 2027?

If legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt has become law after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.0¢No 54.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jul 1, 2027?

If legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Mar 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 32.0¢No 68.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Mar 1, 2027?

If legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt has become law after Issuance and before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.5¢No 69.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2027?

If legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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44¢

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When will the debt limit be increased?

When will the debt limit be increased?

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Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2028?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

When will the debt limit be increased?

Markets (6)

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Oct 1, 2027?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Oct 1, 2027?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jul 1, 2027?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jul 1, 2027?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Mar 1, 2027?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Mar 1, 2027?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2027?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will the debt limit be increased?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Oct 1, 2027?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Oct 1, 2027?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jul 1, 2027?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jul 1, 2027?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Mar 1, 2027?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Mar 1, 2027?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2027?

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