Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

MD-04 House election: Glenn Ivey vote percent

Total Volume

$5.46K

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MD-04 House election: Glenn Ivey vote percent

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$5.46K

Events

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Kalshi

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markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.46K

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $5.46K

100%

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9 markets tracked

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 82% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 82% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?	Kalshi	95%
Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 84% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?	Kalshi	92%
Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 86% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?	Kalshi	78%
Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 88% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?	Kalshi	65%
Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 90% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?	Kalshi	52%
Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 92% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?	Kalshi	43%
Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 94% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?	Kalshi	19%
Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 96% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?	Kalshi	9%
Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 98% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$5.46K

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About This Event

Vote Percent - Glenn Ivey If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Glenn Ivey in the 2026 MD-04 House election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Glenn Ivey ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear i

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** MD-04 House election: Glenn Ivey vote percent
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Glenn Ivey

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Glenn Ivey in the 2026 MD-04 House election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Glenn Ivey ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear i

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Glenn Ivey in the 2026 MD-04 House election is 98% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Glenn Ivey ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 98% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 96% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $405
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 94% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 92% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 90% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 88% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 64.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 86% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 84% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 82% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

MD-04 House election: Glenn Ivey vote percent

Volume$5.46K

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KALSHI

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 82% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.0¢No 5.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 82% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Glenn Ivey in the 2026 MD-04 House election is 82% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Glenn Ivey ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100,

KALSHI

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 84% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.5¢No 8.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 84% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Glenn Ivey in the 2026 MD-04 House election is 84% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Glenn Ivey ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100,

KALSHI

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 86% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 86% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Glenn Ivey in the 2026 MD-04 House election is 86% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Glenn Ivey ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100,

KALSHI

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 88% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 64.5¢No 35.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 88% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Glenn Ivey in the 2026 MD-04 House election is 88% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Glenn Ivey ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100,

KALSHI

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 90% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 52.5¢No 47.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 90% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Glenn Ivey in the 2026 MD-04 House election is 90% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Glenn Ivey ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100,

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/IjSlHg" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="MD-04 House election: Glenn Ivey vote percent"></iframe>

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MD-04 House election: Glenn Ivey vote percent

MD-04 House election: Glenn Ivey vote percent

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Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 82% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

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Events (1)

MD-04 House election: Glenn Ivey vote percent

Markets (9)

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 82% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 82% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 84% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 84% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 86% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 86% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 88% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 88% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 90% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 90% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

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Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 82% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

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MD-04 House election: Glenn Ivey vote percent

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 82% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 82% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 84% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 84% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 86% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 86% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 88% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 88% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 90% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

Will Glenn Ivey receive at least 90% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-04 House election?

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